May 16, 2023 am

Summary: Enough modified marine air seeped through the Delta and Pacheco Pass yesterday to keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s from Merced County north. However, south of Merced County, readings were in the mid to upper 90s. The depth of the marine layer at Ford Ord is 1,400 feet, down from the 2,300 foot level 24 hours ago. With that in mind, no relief from the heat is anticipated through the weekend, at least. We could see a few degrees of cooling around Sunday or Monday as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest. In the big picture, upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean and governs the weather for the western US and western Canada. It will take some kind of major overall pattern change to begin to lower temperatures. Don’t expect much day to day change as readings will continue in the mid to upper 90s with a chance of the very hottest locations in the lower 100s. even the two week model points to well above average temperatures. It stands to reason we would come up against a pattern with above average temperatures considering temperatures for much of the winter and spring were below average. The pendulum is swinging back into the other direction.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday night. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday through Tuesday. Occasional high clouds through Wednesday.

 

Temperatures:  

Madera 97/59/98/60/98	Reedley 98/60/99/61/98	Dinuba 98/57/98/58/97
Porterville 97/60/98/61/98	Lindsay 97/59/98/60/98	Delano 98/62/99/62/99
Bakersfield 97/68/98/68/98	Taft 96/70/97/70/96	Arvin 98/65/98/66/98
Lamont 99/65/100/65/99	Pixley 97/63/98/63/98	Tulare 96/58/97/59/97
Woodlake 97/59/98/60/98	Hanford 97/62/98/62/98	Orosi 96/58/97/59/98

 

Seven Day Forecast

Friday Mostly clear 60/97

Saturday Mostly clear 61/96

Sunday Mostly clear 60/96

Monday Mostly clear 59/95

Tuesday Mostly clear 58/95

 

Two Week Outlook:  May 23 through May 29^th: Above average temperatures will continue through this period with upper level high pressure in charge. This model continues to point towards possibly above average rainfall over the Desert Southwest, however there’s no strong signature for rain for central California.

 

May:  This model continues trends during the month of May that we saw in April. Pressures will be lower than average along the west coast, resulting in the chance of above average rainfall and below average temperatures

 

May, June, July:  This model doesn’t really move the needle either way for temperatures and rainfall over the next three months. being that we’re heading into the hot, dry season, it means little anyway.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest through Friday at 8 to 15 mph afternoons and evenings and 5 to 7 mph nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather for the next week to 10 days.

 

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.83, Parlier, 1.68, Arvin 1.81, Porterville .NA, Delano 1.68.  Soil temperatures: Stratford ,64 Parlier 68, Arvin 71, Porterville NA, Delano 74 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 83/55  Record Temperatures: 103/40

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  106 +4 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  17.83, Monthly  .35

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 9.74, Monthly:  .T

Average Temperature This Month 65.4 -2.0 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1^st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 5:50, sunset, 8:01.  hours of daylight, 14:10

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L         R

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  92 /  57 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  94 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  97 /  69 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  98 /  60 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  99 /  57 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  97 /  66 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  97 /  57 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  97 /  57 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /  93 /  67 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  88 /   M / 0.00 /

 

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   179    9.75    75    12.99    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   19.71   168    8.99    77    11.72    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.84   183    7.44    65    11.39    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.62   112    2.10    20    10.36    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   17.83   170    6.29    60    10.47    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   14.56   186    6.34    81     7.82     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    9.89   161    5.40    88     6.15     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   13.66   323    4.75   112     4.23     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    1.06    61       M     M     1.74     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.88   113    7.31    60    12.24    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.88   177    8.70    74    11.82    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   23.47   181    7.79    60    13.00    13.32

 

Next report: May 17 am

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.