May 30, 2023 am
Summary: The main feature this morning is a weak cut off low centered just to the west of Santa Barbara this morning. The combination of daytime heating and added instability from the low will set off isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains. The counterclockwise circulation around the low is generating a weak east/southeast flow which could, theoretically nudge a stray shower or thunderstorm over the foothills. There’s even a minimal chance of light showers in the south valley through this evening. The low will shift eastward and center over the Colorado River Valley by midday Wednesday, allowing weak high pressure to begin to shift in from the west. High temperatures will lower a tad today then incrementally move upwards beginning Wednesday, peaking into the mid to upper 90s by early next week. Sunday and Monday appear to be the warmest in this series of possible upper 90s. models for next week show another cut off low developing off the southern California coast by Tuesday. What possible ramifications this will have is speculative at this time due to model differences. However, no significant precipitation threat is seen.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today and tonight. A slight chance of isolated sprinkles or light showers . mostly clear Wednesday through Tuesday with a warming trend.
Temperatures:
| Madera
80/55/85/54/88 |
Reedley
81/54/84/55/89 |
Dinuba
80/56/85/55/88 |
| Porterville
81/56/86/56/88 |
Lindsay
81/54/86/57/88 |
Delano
81/56/84/55/87 |
| Bakerfield
80/60/84/58/87 |
Taft
79/59/84/60/85 |
Arvin
80/56/86/57/89 |
| Lamont
80/57/87/57/89 |
Pixley
81/55/84/56/88 |
Tulare
81/54/84/55/87 |
| Woodlake
81/54/85/55/87 |
Hanford
81/56/86/57/89 |
Orosi
81/53/84/56/86 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear 56/89 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 58/91 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 61/96 |
Monday
Mostly clear 63/90 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 61/96 |
Two Week Outlook: June 4 through June 10 This model is showing a broad trough of low pressure over and along the west coast during this timeframe. This time of year, typically it doesn’t mean much so the chance of precipitation is slim to none. However, temperatures will be somewhat below seasonal average.
May: This model continues trends during the month of May that we saw in April. Pressures will be lower than average along the west coast, resulting in the chance of above average rainfall and below average temperatures
May, June, July: This model doesn’t really move the needle either way for temperatures and rainfall over the next three months. being that we’re heading into the hot, dry season, it means little anyway.
Wind Discussion: During the afternoon through late evening hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain Discussion: There is a slight chance of isolated light showers or sprinkles, mainly over the Kern County portion of the valley today and tonight. However, the chance of measurable precipitation at any give location remains small. The little cut off low responsible for this minor threat will shift eastward Wednesday, leading to dry weather for the remainder of the week. models show another cut off low off the southern California coast Monday of next week. I’m not read to put precipitation in the forecast for this feature due to model differences and the amount of time between now and next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.78, Parlier, 1.70, Arvin 1.92, Delano 1.77.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 74, Arvin 77, Delano 80 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 87/57 Record Temperatures: 109/45
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 247 +56 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.74, Monthly: T
Average Temperature this Month 69.9. +0.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:42, sunset, 8:12. hours of daylight, 14:29
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 81 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 81 / 59 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 175 9.75 74 13.24 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 19.71 164 8.99 75 12.03 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.84 180 7.44 64 11.61 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 110 2.10 20 10.57 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 167 6.29 59 10.65 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.56 182 6.34 79 7.98 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.89 158 5.40 86 6.25 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.66 315 4.75 109 4.34 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.08 62 M M 1.75 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.88 112 7.31 59 12.41 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.88 175 8.70 73 11.95 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.47 179 7.79 59 13.14 13.32
Next report: May 31 am
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