June 9, 2023
Summary: Now that we have a storm system that resulted in unusual weather out of the way, we turn our attention to a second system which also presents interesting possibilities. Currently, that system is off the northern California coast. The cloud shield is already almost on shore along the northern California coast. By midday Saturday, this trough will have pinched off along its southern flank, forming a new low center just off the southern California coast. As the low approaches, scattered showers and thunderstorms will break out Saturday, mainly over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The counterclockwise circulation around this system will initial result in a southeast flow aloft. It will eventually turn northwesterly as the low tracks slowly into southern California. This system has a lot of similarities to the last event which resulted in precipitation amounts ranging from nothing to nearly an inch in isolated locations. This system probably has a better chance of producing measurable rain in more locations. Thunderstorms will certainly be possible as the very high sun angle creates daytime heating, developing warm currents of air that move skyward. This warm air interacts with cold air aloft, triggering convection and leading to at least isolated thunderstorms. Localized heavy rain and hail are the main precipitation threats with thunderstorms. There is a small chance of measurable rain, mainly near the foothills as early as Saturday afternoon with the greatest risk being Saturday night through Sunday night.. most models show this storm weakening as it moves into Nevada Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below average then will slowly move into seasonal average levels by Thursday and possibly even Friday.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning. Increasing clouds this afternoon and tonight. Variable cloudiness Saturday through Monday with a slight chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon with a greater risk Sunday and Sunday night. A slight chance of showers for a time Monday morning, becoming mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
86/59/84/60/81 |
Reedley
87/61/84/61/81 |
Dinuba
85/59/84/60/80 |
| Porterville
86/62/84/60/80 |
Lindsay
86/59/84/61/81 |
Delano
86/61/84/60/80 |
| Bakersfield
86/68/83/64/81 |
Taft
83/64/80/62/77 |
Arvin
87/63/84/62/81 |
| Lamont
88/64/84/62/80 |
Pixley
86/61/84/60/81 |
Tulare
85/58/83/61/81 |
| Woodlake
86/60/83/62/80 |
Hanford
87/62/84/62/82 |
Orosi
85/58/84/59/81 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Partly cloudy 56/81 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 58/81 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 60/87 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 62/90 |
Friday
Mostly clear 62/92 |
Two Week Outlook: June 16 through June 22 This model is showing a broad trough of low pressure over and along the west coast during this timeframe. This time of year, typically it doesn’t mean much so the chance of precipitation is slim to none. However, temperatures will be somewhat below seasonal average.
June: Of course, this time of year, 30 and 90 day outlooks are virtually useless as they’re essentially the same every year. Basically light all day and hot and light all night and warm. Essentially for June, near average temperatures and dry..
June, July, August: The 90 day summary outlook is the same this year as it is every year. Generally dry with somewhat above average temperatures. The monsoon season hasn’t begun yet, so we’ll start taking that more seriously down the road.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20mph today through tonight. Winds Saturday will be mainly out of northwest at 10 to 20 with local gusts to 30, mainly on the west side. Saturday night through Monday, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: For this late in the season, models are tantalizingly interesting for the chance of measurable rain from Saturday night into Monday. by Saturday morning, a low will be developing west of Vandenberg AFB. it is rare to see significant precipitation on the valley floor this late in the year and even more rare to have it to occur twice in one week. nevertheless, that is the possibility models are painting this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will break out over the mountain areas Saturday afternoon. The winds aloft will become southeasterly beginning tonight. This has the potential of moving scattered showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor through Saturday. As the low begins to shift inland Saturday night, a northwest flow will begin which also favors activity moving towards the valley floor. at this point,, I put the chance of measurable rain at any given location about 30% or so. The chance of significant rainfall is very low, as was demonstrated just this past week, isolated pockets could get nailed if they are in the path of a thunderstorm. Hail also cannot be ruled out. Rainfall amounts will range from nothing to as much as .10 to .15. but considerably more if you find yourself in the path of a thunderstorm. the greatest risk will be Saturday night through Sunday evening. There is a risk of a few lingering showers Monday morning. The weather will turn dry again Monday afternoon, continuing dry through the remainder of next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.70, Parlier, 1.48, Arvin 1.61, Delano 1.58.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 74, Arvin 78, Delano 80 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 89/59 Record Temperatures: 110/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 312 +54 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: .0
Average Temperature this Month 72.8 +0.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:40, sunset, 8:17. hours of daylight, 14:37
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 84 / 61 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 65 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 60 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 79 / 58 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 59 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 74 13.31 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 19.71 163 8.99 74 12.12 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.84 178 7.44 64 11.69 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 109 2.10 20 10.67 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 166 6.29 58 10.77 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.58 181 6.34 79 8.04 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.40 86 6.29 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.74 313 4.75 108 4.39 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.09 62 M M 1.76 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 112 7.31 59 12.45 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 174 8.70 73 11.98 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.83 181 7.79 59 13.18 13.32
Next report: June 10 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.