June 10, 2023
Summary: The center of circulation of a weak closed low is located roughly 200 miles west of Santa Maria this morning and is drifting east/southeast. Variable cloudiness covers all of southern and central California however, doppler radar is indicating only a few light returns over the Kern County mountains. The low, by most models, will move over the Channel Islands by midday Sunday and near the Nevada/southwest Utah border by midday Monday. the greatest risk for measurable rain, low as it may be, will be tonight through Sunday evening. As usual, daytime heating will play a central role in the formation of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Most locations will observe no more than trace amounts, however, like last weekend’s event, there is the possibility of isolated exceptions. Beginning Monday night and Tuesday, a weak zone of upper level high pressure will blanket most of the western US and off shore waters. Some models, though, are picking up on the possibility of a weak closed low setting up shop several hundred miles off the central coast, moving inland next weekend. For now, this does not appear to be a precipitation threat, however, stay tuned for any possible adjustments in the forecast. Short term, temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s, finally climbing to near 90 by Wednesday with possible mid to upper 90s by Sunday and Monday of next week.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Sunday night with a minimal chance of scattered light showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. Greatest risk will be near the foothills. Mostly Tuesday through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
83/61/83/58/80 |
Reedley
85/62/85/58/81 |
Dinuba
83/60/83/59/80 |
| Porterville
85/62/85/59/82 |
Lindsay
84/60/84/59/80 |
Delano
86/63/85/62/81 |
| Bakersfield
84/67/82/63/80 |
Taft
83/65/81/60/81 |
Arvin
85/64/85/61/81 |
| Lamont
84/63/85/61/80 |
Pixley
84/61/82/58/81 |
Tulare
83/60/81/60/80 |
| Woodlake
83/59/83/60/80 |
Hanford
84/61/84/59/81 |
Orosi
83/59/83/58/80 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 58/82 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 61/87 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 63/91 |
Friday
Mostly clear 63/93 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 64/95 |
Two Week Outlook: June 17 through June 23 This model is showing a broad trough of low pressure over and along the west coast during this timeframe. This time of year, typically it doesn’t mean much so the chance of precipitation is slim to none. However, temperatures will be somewhat below seasonal average.
June: Of course, this time of year, 30 and 90 day outlooks are virtually useless as they’re essentially the same every year. Basically light all day and hot and light all night and warm. Essentially for June, near average temperatures and dry..
June, July, August: The 90 day summary outlook is the same this year as it is every year. Generally dry with somewhat above average temperatures. The monsoon season hasn’t begun yet, so we’ll start taking that more seriously down the road.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Sunday will be variable to 15 mph. gusts to 20 mph are possible, mainly near showers. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 8 to 15 mph. During the night and morning hours, winds will decrease to no more than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Radar returns as of the time of this writing were rather scant. However, as the daytime heating process revs up later today, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will erupt over the mountain areas. The counterclockwise circulation pattern around the low is creating a southeast flow aloft, so activity that develops over the mountains may be sustained as it moves over the valley floor. I would put the chance of measurable rain at any given location at around 20%, perhaps a little higher near the base of the foothills. Most locations will receive just trace amounts, however if thunderstorms are sustained over the valley floor, localized pockets could measure as much as .25. dry weather will return Monday and will continue for the remainder of next week and more than likely beyond.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.71, Parlier, 1.48, Arvin 1.58, Delano 1.56.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 74, Arvin 78, Delano 79 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 90/60 Record Temperatures: 106/46
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 337 +51 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: .0
Average Temperature this Month 73.4 -0.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:39, sunset, 8:18. hours of daylight, 14:38
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 87 / 58 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 85 / 65 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 63 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 84 / 65 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats:
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 74 13.31 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 19.71 163 8.99 74 12.12 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.84 178 7.44 64 11.69 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 109 2.10 20 10.67 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 166 6.29 58 10.77 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.58 181 6.34 79 8.04 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.40 86 6.29 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.74 313 4.75 108 4.39 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.09 62 M M 1.76 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 112 7.31 59 12.45 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 174 8.70 73 11.98 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.83 181 7.79 59 13.18 13.32
Next report: June 11 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.