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Forecast

June 20, 2023 report

We will be out of the office July 1 through July 8. Reports will resume July 10.

 

 

June 20, 2023

Summary: A very cool zone of low pressure aloft stretches from the Canadian Rockies south/southwest into northern and central California. Much cooler air has moved in aloft over the past 36 hours. Roughly 48 hours ago, the freezing level taken over Oakland was near 14,000 feet while the latest overnight reading is 9,500 feet. This, coupled with cool air aloft and a robust onshore  surface flow, means plenty of Pacific maritime air is invading the valley. The result is unusually cool summertime weather. From Fresno County north yesterday, readings did not reach the 80 degree mark but struggled into the lower 80s in the south valley. Today will be quite similar as the overall pattern has not changed much. The low will begin to weaken after Thursday, however pressure patterns will remain weak over the west, maintaining below average temperatures through the weekend. I can just see some LA camper up at Tuolumne  Meadows where it was 25 degrees as of 5:00am. The coolest I could find on the valley floor was 45 degrees at Porterville. I took a glance at medium range models for late June and early July. The GFS model was indicating strong high pressure would be blanketing the west, resulting in hot weather. We’ll see if this comes to pass.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear and mild through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday with a slow warming trend.

 

Temperatures:

Madera

82/48/85/51/86

Reedley

83//50/84/51/85

Dinuba

81/49/84/51/84

Porterville

82/47/85/50/85

Lindsay

82/48/85/50/85

Delano

83/50/86/53/86

Bakersfield

82/55/84/58/85

Taft

79/56/82/58/82

Arvin

83/54/87/55/86

Lamont

84/53/87/53/86

Pixley

83/50/86/52/86

Tulare

81/48/84/50/85

Woodlake

82/49/85/50/85

Hanford

82/52/85/53/86

Orosi

81/49/84/51/85

 

Seven Day Forecast

Friday

Mostly clear

52/87

Saturday

Mostly clear

53/86

Sunday

Mostly clear

54/89

Monday

Mostly clear

57/91

Tuesday

Mostly clear

57/92

 

Two Week Outlook:  June 26 through July 2  This model is beginning to depict a high center developing over extreme over Mexico and southern Arizona and New Mexico, theoretically baking the Desert Southwest. Central California will be on the far northern fringe of this high, resulting in slightly above average temperatures and dry conditions.

 

June:  Of course, this time of year, 30 and 90 day outlooks are virtually useless as they’re essentially the same every year. Basically light all day and hot and light all night and warm. Essentially for June, near average temperatures and dry..

 

June, July, August:  The 90 day summary outlook is the same this year as it is every year. Generally dry with somewhat above average temperatures. The monsoon season hasn’t begun yet, so we’ll start taking that more seriously down the road.

 

Wind Discussion  There will be periods of winds out of the west/northwest at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts possible through Thursday, mainly in the later afternoon through early evening hours. Winds Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week.

 

Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 30s.  Kern: Low to mid 30s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 2.05, Parlier, 1.93, Arvin 2.07, Delano 1.83.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 78, Arvin 81, Delano 85 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 93/62  Record Temperatures: 110/50

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  455 +61 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  17.83, Monthly  .T

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 10.26, Monthly:  .37

Average Temperature this Month 75.0 +0.3 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 5:40, sunset, 8:21.  hours of daylight, 14:41

NA=Not available

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L         R

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  77 /  53 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  79 /  57 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  81 /  59 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  82 /  52 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  82 /  61 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  80 /  59 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  81 /  57 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1647 /  80 /  63 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  83 /  55 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   174    9.81    74    13.34    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   19.71   162    8.99    74    12.17    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.84   178    7.44    63    11.74    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.62   108    2.10    20    10.74    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   17.83   164    6.29    58    10.88    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   14.58   181    6.34    79     8.06     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   10.26   163    5.40    86     6.30     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   14.39   325    4.75   107     4.43     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    1.21    68       M     M     1.78     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   112    7.31    59    12.48    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.89   174    8.70    73    11.99    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   23.83   181    7.79    59    13.19    13.32

 

Next report: June 21 am

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.