July 21, 2023
Summary Strong upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest is again expanding to the north and west. What this means is pressure aloft will increase over the next 48 hours, so the hot temperatures will only get hotter. Hottest locations Saturday and Sunday on the valley floor will again approach the 110 degree mark. The marine layer at Ford Ord is only 1,000 feet deep this morning and winds at Traverse AFB are southwest at just 11 mph, indicating no sea breeze is moving through the Delta. Higher level clouds in association with the monsoon have entered extreme southern California. As the high shifts further west, the clockwise flow will turn the winds out of the southeast. As a result, mid and high level clouds will begin to show up over the weekend, but they will not be dense enough to affect temperature outcomes. By Monday night, the center of circulation will move off to the east, turning the winds aloft out of the southwest, which is typically very dry. By the middle of next week, a trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest. In theory, this should deepen the marine layer enough to move some modified sea breezes down the valley, possibly lower temperatures down int double digits by Thursday or Friday.
Forecast: Clear and hot today. Mostly clear tonight through Sunday and very hot with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear and hot Monday through Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
106/71/108/73/107 |
Reedley
106/70/109/73/107 |
Dinuba
105/71/108/73/106 |
| Porterville
107/70/109/72/108 |
Lindsay
106/69/108/71/107 |
Delano
107/74/109/75/108 |
| Bakersfield
107/80/109/81/108 |
Taft
105/81/107/82/105 |
Arvin
110/76/111/77/107 |
| Lamont
108/75/110/76/107 |
Pixley
106/73/109/74/106 |
Tulare
104/70/107/72/106 |
| Woodlake
105/70/108/72/106 |
Hanford
106/71/108/72/106 |
Orosi
104/70/107/71/106 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 71/105 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 67/102 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 65/100 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 64/100 |
Friday
Mostly clear 63/00 |
Two Week Outlook: July 28 through August 3: This model shows an active monsoon in the Desert Southwest and California. There will be a chance of mainly pm thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada with occasional periods of higher level clouds over the valley floor. temperatures are projected to be above average.
July: Typically, this time of year there is absolutely nothing going on in the world of weather. Temperature forecasts are the main forecast challenge. For now, the usual dry conditions will prevail with temperatures near to marginally above average
July, August, September: The monsoon into the Desert Southwest and occasionally California is what we carefully watch this time of year, especially during August and September. This model is currently showing below average precipitation over Arizona and New Mexico. This indicates there will be less of a chance of the monsoon visiting California this summer. Temperatures are expected to range above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late evening through the morning hours will generally be at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the afternoon and evening, winds will be generally at or less than 15 mph with locally stronger gusts through Monday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 2.12, Parlier, 1.89, Arvin 2.25, Delano 1.88.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 81, Arvin 86, Delano 86 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/67 Record Temperatures: 112/56
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 935 +79 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 83.5 +2.5 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:57, Sunset, 8:14. hours of daylight, 14:18
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 99 / 64 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 104 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 105 / 68 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 104 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 102 / 74 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 101 / 66 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 102 / 67 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 98 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 8.99 74 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.02 20.86 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 163 6.29 58 10.93 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.58 180 6.34 78 8.08 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP T 14.39 314 4.85 106 4.59 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.21 66 0.00 0 1.84 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 112 7.31 59 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 174 8.70 72 12.04 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.83 180 7.79 59 13.23 13.32
Next report: July 22 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.