Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

August 16, 2023 report

August 16, 2023

Summary  In the short term, hot weather will continue through Thursday with a cooling trend beginning Friday. Most locations today and Thursday will range between 104 and 108. Currently, upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a weak upper low off the central coast allow the south/southeast flow to continue. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to break out afternoons and evenings over the southern Sierra Nevada and the mountains and deserts of southern California. A few short lived cells may even break out over the Coast Range. There remains a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two clipping the extreme south valley or right along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada. The ante has risen considerably for rain during the second half of the weekend and early next week. I now consider the risk factor to be high. There are two schools of thought on how this will play itself out. A broad area of tropical low pressure is centered several hundred miles south/southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. This low is projected to become a named storm over the next 48 hours then will move to the north/northwest to a position just off shore of Cabo San Lucas Friday. From this point on is where things get really dicey. The system is projected to move northwestward parallel to the Baja coastline. There are two rules of thought on this. The first is that the remnants of the storm will move through northern Baja inland though southern California with potentially heavy rain over southern California and the Kern County mountains and then up the southern Sierra Nevada by Monday. this solution would result in just light showers over the valley floor. solution number two shows a similar path with a considerable amount of moisture moving up the central coast, spreading a good amount of precipitation over the valley floor, especially south of Fresno County. One model indicates a 56% chance of rain by Sunday with a 97% chance by Monday. this same model squeezes out .90 for Bakersfield with lighter amounts further north. No matter how you roll the dice, this is a significant rain threat for valley ag. This is the fourth day in a row that models have pointed to a rain event in the valley. Rainfall amounts for Saturday night through Monday night range from just a few hundredths on the dry side to possibly as much as 1.00, especially in Kern County. The chance of measurable  rain will begin to increase Saturday night then peak Sunday night and Monday with a chance of showers Tuesday morning.

 

Forecast Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Saturday with a slight risk of isolated thunderstorm near the foothills afternoons and evenings through Thursday. Increasing clouds Saturday night with a slight risk of showers after midnight. A chance of numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday night. A chance of showers Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms near the foothills.

 

Temperatures:

Madera

105/73/104/66/97

Reedley

105/72/104/67/98

Dinuba

103/72/103/66/97

Porterville

106/74/105/73/99

Lindsay

105/71/105/68/98

Delano

106/76/105/71/99

Bakersfield

107/80/105/75/99

Taft

104/80/103/74/97

Arvin

107/77/105/72/99

Lamont

107/78/105/72/100

Pixley

105/75/105/68/97

Tulare

104/72/103/67/97

Woodlake

105/71/105/68/98

Hanford

106/74/104/68/98

Orosi

104/71/104/67/98

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Increasing clouds

63/96

Sunday

Rain likely

73/83

Monday

Rain likely

70/81

Tuesday

AM showers

68/91

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

68/89

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 22 through August 28   This model points to hot weather over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with above average temperatures over the remainder of California. Expect a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.

 

August:  This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.

 

August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds today through this evening will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. During the night and morning hours winds will generally be at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.

 

Rain Discussion: The ante has risen considerably for rain during the second half of the weekend and early next week. I now consider the risk factor to be high. There are two schools of thought on how this will play itself out. A broad area of tropical low pressure is centered several hundred miles south/southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. This low is projected to become a named storm over the next 48 hours then will move to the north/northwest to a position just off shore of Cabo San Lucas Friday. From this point on is where things get really dicey. The system is projected to move northwestward parallel to the Baja coastline. There are two rules of thought on this. The first is that the remnants of the storm will move through northern Baja inland though southern California with potentially heavy rain over southern California and the Kern County mountains and then up the southern Sierra Nevada by Monday. this solution would result in just light showers over the valley floor. solution number two shows a similar path with a considerable amount of moisture moving up the central coast, spreading a good amount of precipitation over the valley floor, especially south of Fresno County. One model indicates a 56% chance of rain by Sunday with a 97% chance by Monday. this same model squeezes out .90 for Bakersfield with lighter amounts further north. No matter how you roll the dice, this is a significant rain threat for valley ag. This is the fourth day in a row that models have pointed to a rain event in the valley. Rainfall amounts for Saturday night through Monday night range from just a few hundredths on the dry side to possibly as much as 1.00, especially in Kern County. The chance of measurable  rain will begin to increase Saturday night then peak Sunday night and Monday with a chance of showers Tuesday morning.

 

Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.84, Parlier, 1.65, Arvin 1.90, Delano 1.65.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Arvin 82, Delano 82 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 97/65  Record Temperatures: 112/53

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1418 +144 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  17.83, Monthly  .T

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 10.26, Monthly:  T

Average Temperature this Month 82.0 +1.4 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:18, Sunset, 7:48.  hours of daylight, 13:32

NA=Not available

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L        

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 104 /  69 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 107 /  67 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 108 /  76 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 107 /  70 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 108 /  70 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 / 106 /  80 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 103 /  70 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 107 /  70 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 102 /  75 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   174    9.81    73    13.36    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.17   165    9.00    74    12.20    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.86   178    7.44    63    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.62   108    2.21    21    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   17.83   163    6.34    58    10.94    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   14.59   180    6.36    79     8.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   10.26   163    5.41    86     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   14.72   314    5.63   120     4.69     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    1.25    64    1.70    87     1.95     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   111    7.31    58    12.52    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.89   173    8.70    72    12.09    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   24.05   182    7.79    59    13.24    13.32

 

 

Next report: August 17 am

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.