August 16, 2023
Summary In the short term, hot weather will continue through Thursday with a cooling trend beginning Friday. Most locations today and Thursday will range between 104 and 108. Currently, upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a weak upper low off the central coast allow the south/southeast flow to continue. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to break out afternoons and evenings over the southern Sierra Nevada and the mountains and deserts of southern California. A few short lived cells may even break out over the Coast Range. There remains a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two clipping the extreme south valley or right along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada. The ante has risen considerably for rain during the second half of the weekend and early next week. I now consider the risk factor to be high. There are two schools of thought on how this will play itself out. A broad area of tropical low pressure is centered several hundred miles south/southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. This low is projected to become a named storm over the next 48 hours then will move to the north/northwest to a position just off shore of Cabo San Lucas Friday. From this point on is where things get really dicey. The system is projected to move northwestward parallel to the Baja coastline. There are two rules of thought on this. The first is that the remnants of the storm will move through northern Baja inland though southern California with potentially heavy rain over southern California and the Kern County mountains and then up the southern Sierra Nevada by Monday. this solution would result in just light showers over the valley floor. solution number two shows a similar path with a considerable amount of moisture moving up the central coast, spreading a good amount of precipitation over the valley floor, especially south of Fresno County. One model indicates a 56% chance of rain by Sunday with a 97% chance by Monday. this same model squeezes out .90 for Bakersfield with lighter amounts further north. No matter how you roll the dice, this is a significant rain threat for valley ag. This is the fourth day in a row that models have pointed to a rain event in the valley. Rainfall amounts for Saturday night through Monday night range from just a few hundredths on the dry side to possibly as much as 1.00, especially in Kern County. The chance of measurable rain will begin to increase Saturday night then peak Sunday night and Monday with a chance of showers Tuesday morning.
Forecast Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Saturday with a slight risk of isolated thunderstorm near the foothills afternoons and evenings through Thursday. Increasing clouds Saturday night with a slight risk of showers after midnight. A chance of numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday night. A chance of showers Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms near the foothills.
Temperatures:
Madera
105/73/104/66/97 |
Reedley
105/72/104/67/98 |
Dinuba
103/72/103/66/97 |
Porterville
106/74/105/73/99 |
Lindsay
105/71/105/68/98 |
Delano
106/76/105/71/99 |
Bakersfield
107/80/105/75/99 |
Taft
104/80/103/74/97 |
Arvin
107/77/105/72/99 |
Lamont
107/78/105/72/100 |
Pixley
105/75/105/68/97 |
Tulare
104/72/103/67/97 |
Woodlake
105/71/105/68/98 |
Hanford
106/74/104/68/98 |
Orosi
104/71/104/67/98 |
Seven Day Forecast
Saturday
Increasing clouds 63/96 |
Sunday
Rain likely 73/83 |
Monday
Rain likely 70/81 |
Tuesday
AM showers 68/91 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 68/89 |
Two Week Outlook: August 22 through August 28 This model points to hot weather over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with above average temperatures over the remainder of California. Expect a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today through this evening will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. During the night and morning hours winds will generally be at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain Discussion: The ante has risen considerably for rain during the second half of the weekend and early next week. I now consider the risk factor to be high. There are two schools of thought on how this will play itself out. A broad area of tropical low pressure is centered several hundred miles south/southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. This low is projected to become a named storm over the next 48 hours then will move to the north/northwest to a position just off shore of Cabo San Lucas Friday. From this point on is where things get really dicey. The system is projected to move northwestward parallel to the Baja coastline. There are two rules of thought on this. The first is that the remnants of the storm will move through northern Baja inland though southern California with potentially heavy rain over southern California and the Kern County mountains and then up the southern Sierra Nevada by Monday. this solution would result in just light showers over the valley floor. solution number two shows a similar path with a considerable amount of moisture moving up the central coast, spreading a good amount of precipitation over the valley floor, especially south of Fresno County. One model indicates a 56% chance of rain by Sunday with a 97% chance by Monday. this same model squeezes out .90 for Bakersfield with lighter amounts further north. No matter how you roll the dice, this is a significant rain threat for valley ag. This is the fourth day in a row that models have pointed to a rain event in the valley. Rainfall amounts for Saturday night through Monday night range from just a few hundredths on the dry side to possibly as much as 1.00, especially in Kern County. The chance of measurable rain will begin to increase Saturday night then peak Sunday night and Monday with a chance of showers Tuesday morning.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.84, Parlier, 1.65, Arvin 1.90, Delano 1.65.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Arvin 82, Delano 82 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 97/65 Record Temperatures: 112/53
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1418 +144 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: T
Average Temperature this Month 82.0 +1.4 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:18, Sunset, 7:48. hours of daylight, 13:32
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 104 / 69 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 107 / 67 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 108 / 76 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 107 / 70 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 108 / 70 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 106 / 80 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 103 / 70 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 107 / 70 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 102 / 75 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 9.00 74 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.86 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 163 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.59 180 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 14.72 314 5.63 120 4.69 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.25 64 1.70 87 1.95 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.52 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 17 am
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