August 17, 2023
Summary Today will be the last day of widespread triple digits on the valley floor. a weak upper low off the central coast will move close enough to allow a push of marine air down the valley. This will lower temperatures into the upper 90s Friday. It is becoming more apparent that a very rare weather event will take place this weekend and early next week. Hurricane Hilary is currently located about 800 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. Hilary, which was named yesterday, blossomed overnight into a hurricane and will become a major category 3 or higher hurricane later today. By Friday evening, the center of circulation will be just to the west of the southern tip of Baja. Hilary will track northward parallel to the Baja coast, possibly making landfall near Tijuana sometime Sunday afternoon. The warning cone that you see on TV tracks Hilary right into central California Monday. it’s no longer a question of if it will rain but a question of how much.
We’re still quite a way out from the event, which will set up Sunday and last through early Tuesday. It appears one to three inches of rain will likely fall over the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada from Fresno County south. On the valley floor, roughly on a line from Coalinga to Porterville southward, one-half to one inch is likely, possibly more if embedded thunderstorms occur. Even the northern half of the valley is now in the target area for significant precipitation as a quarter to one-half inch is certainly possible from Fresno County north.
Somewhat of a wild card still remains from that upper low off the central coast. Models project that system to move on shore just as the circulation of what will become tropical depression Hilary moves through the valley. This feature would add convection to the atmosphere, increasing the chance of a major weather event. We could see measurable rain as early as late Saturday night. The chance of showers and possible thunderstorms will increase during the second half of the day Sunday, becoming likely Sunday night through Monday night with a chance of lingering showers Tuesday morning. From Tuesday afternoon on, we can expect dry weather.
Temperatures over the weekend will be unusually mild due to cloud cover and rain, dropping into the mid 80s Sunday and only the low to mid 70s Monday. temperatures will warm back into the mid 90s by mid week when skies finally clear.
Forecast Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Friday night with a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms near the foothills. Partly cloudy Saturday night with a slight chance of showers in Kern County before sunrise. Showers spreading northward Sunday with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Rain becoming likely Sunday night through Monday night with a chance of embedded thunderstorms. A chance of showers for a time Tuesday morning, then becoming partly cloudy. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
103/67/98/63/97 |
Reedley
105/69/98/64/97 |
Dinuba
103/64/96/63/96 |
| Porterville
104/69/98/64/96 |
Lindsay
104/68/98/63/97 |
Delano
105/66/99/64/98 |
| Bakersfield
105/75/99/71/98 |
Taft
101/73/95/67/95 |
Arvin
106/71/100/67/97 |
| Lamont
105/72/99/68/97 |
Pixley
105/68/99/64/97 |
Tulare
103/66/97/63/96 |
| Woodlake
103/66/97/63/96 |
Hanford
105/69/98/65/97 |
Orosi
103/68/97/64/96 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
PM showers likely 68/85 |
Monday
Rain likely 67/74 |
Tuesday
AM showers 63/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 67/95 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 65/95 |
Two Week Outlook: August 24 through August 30 This model points to hot weather over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with above average temperatures over the remainder of California. Expect a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. Winds tonight and Friday will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds Saturday will be variable to near 15 mph. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be out of the east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: It is becoming more apparent that a very rare weather event will take place this weekend and early next week. Hurricane Hilary is currently located about 800 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. Hilary, which was named yesterday, blossomed overnight into a hurricane and will become a major category 3 or higher hurricane later today. By Friday evening, the center of circulation will be just to the west of the southern tip of Baja. Hilary will track northward parallel to the Baja coast, possibly making landfall near Tijuana sometime Sunday afternoon. The warning cone that you see on TV tracks Hilary right into central California Monday. it’s no longer a question of if it will rain but a question of how much.
We’re still quite a way out from the event, which will set up Sunday and last through early Tuesday. It appears one to three inches of rain will likely fall over the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada from Fresno County south. On the valley floor, roughly on a line from Coalinga to Porterville southward, one-half to one inch is likely, possibly more if embedded thunderstorms occur. Even the northern half of the valley is now in the target area for significant precipitation as a quarter to one-half inch is certainly possible from Fresno County north.
Somewhat of a wild card still remains from that upper low off the central coast. Models project that system to move on shore just as the circulation of what will become tropical depression Hilary moves through the valley. This feature would add convection to the atmosphere, increasing the chance of a major weather event. We could see measurable rain as early as late Saturday night. The chance of showers and possible thunderstorms will increase during the second half of the day Sunday, becoming likely Sunday night through Monday night with a chance of lingering showers Tuesday morning. From Tuesday afternoon on, we can expect dry weather.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.79, Parlier, 1.59, Arvin 1.87, Delano 1.58.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 81, Arvin 82, Delano 82 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 97/65 Record Temperatures: 111/53
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1442 +153 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: T
Average Temperature this Month 82.5 +1.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:18, Sunset, 7:46. hours of daylight, 13:30
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 100 / 72 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 70 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 105 / 80 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 103 / 74 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 70 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 103 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 101 / 72 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / M / 75 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 103 / 71 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 9.00 74 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.86 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 163 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD T 14.59 180 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP T 14.72 313 5.63 120 4.70 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.25 64 1.70 87 1.95 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.52 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 17 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.