August 18, 2023/pm
Summary: The center of circulation of major hurricane Hilary is roughly 250 miles to the southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and is moving in a northwesterly direction at 10 mph. Hilary will continue its northwest path then will turn more to the north Saturday, skirting the northern Baja peninsula by Sunday evening as a hurricane. For the first time since I began forecasting weather in the valley, we have tropical storm warnings for southern California. Winds of 43 to 72 mph will be possible along the coast from the Orange/San Diego County line south to the Mexico border. Tropical storm force winds are also possible over the mountains of southern California and locally over the deserts of southern California from San Bernardino southward.
The warning cone put out by the National Hurricane Center now pegs the center of Hilary near the Tulare/Kern County line by Monday at 6:00am. This is slightly further west than earlier predictions and it also puts valley ag in a precarious situation as rainfall estimates have also risen. The River Forecast Center in Sacramento calculates Bakersfield will pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain, mainly from Sunday night through Monday evening. One and a half to two inches are possible from Porterville southward to the Kern County line with one-half to one inch projected from Kings northward through Merced County.
There is a slight chance of showers as early as Saturday night in Kern County with a chance of rain increasing Sunday. Rain, heavy at times, is expected for Sunday evening through Monday evening. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible. Rain will taper off rapidly by later Monday night with dry weather returning Tuesday and beyond.
Temperatures Monday may not get out of the 70s on the valley floor due to heavy cloud cover and precipitation.
Locally gusty winds are also possible Sunday night and Monday with gusts to 30 mph possible, especially in Kern County and southwestern Tulare County.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Saturday. A chance of showers Saturday night, especially after midnight. Showers likely Sunday with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Rain, heavy at times, Sunday night through Monday evening. Expect gusty winds mainly out of the south to southeast Sunday night through Monday night gusting to 30 mph. a chance of showers Monday night, tapering off. Partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday through Friday with a warning trend.
Temperatures: Lows tonight will range in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Highs Saturday will warm to near 100. Lows Saturday night will range in the 70s with highs Sunday in the mid 80s.
Next update: August 19/am