August 19, 2023/pm
Summary: Mid and high level clouds have advanced over the southern San Joaquin Valley as of midday. The deeper, rich tropical moisture had entered southern California. Already today, there have been flash flood warnings near the San Diego/Imperial County line and another warning over northern Imperial County and southern Riverside Counties. This first surge of moisture will move northward just to the east of the Sierra Nevada while the deeper tropical moisture continues to advance northward over central and northern Baja.
The center of Hurricane Hilary is now roughly 250 miles west of the southern Baja peninsula and is moving north/northwest at 14 mph. the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center indicates the center of circulation, by 6:00pm Sunday, will be near the Imperial/San Diego County line.
The richer tropical moisture will move into the southern sections of central California by late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. The heaviest moisture field will pass just to our east. Even so, high resolution models are calling for heavy amounts of precipitation over the valley portion of Kern County where 2 to 3 inches is possible over the southeast portion of the county and anywhere from 1.50 to 2 inches in southeastern Tulare County and .50 to 1 along the eastern side of the valley and over Kings County.
It still looks like the bulk of the precipitation will fall between Sunday evening and Monday afternoon, tapering off late Monday evening with dry weather returning Tuesday and beyond.
Winds will also be a factor with this event with gusty east to southeast winds over portions of the south valley Sunday through Monday. gusts in excess of 30mph will be possible, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Gusty winds in the 10 to 20 mph range can be expected over the remainder of the growing area with stronger gusts.
Temperatures will drop from the upper 90s to near 100 today to the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday and Monday with a warming trend thereafter.
Forecast Increasing clouds this afternoon. An increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight. Rain likely Sunday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Rain, possibly heavy at times, late Sunday night and Monday. a chance of showers Monday evening. Becoming partly cloudy later Monday night through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight will cool into the 70s. Highs Sunday and Monday will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will cool into the upper 60s to the mid 70s.
Next update: August 20/am