August 20, 2023
Summary Rain is widespread over southern California at this hour. Most of the showers as of 6:00am were from the Kern County mountains south with scattered showers over central California. Hilary is still a minimal hurricane and will become a tropical storm later today as the center of circulation moves over San Diego County, western Riverside County, and western San Bernardino Counties. Tropical storm force winds will be evident tonight over southern California, possibly gusting to 70 mph over mountain and possibly desert regions. Widespread flooding can be expected over many areas of southern California. It will be most pronounced over the mountains and deserts where 4 to 6 inches of rain can be expected.
The warning cone this morning tracks tropical storm Hilary slightly further east. The center of circulation should be somewhere near Death Valley by 11:00 tonight. Showers can be expected this morning, turning to widespread rain later this afternoon, tonight, and Monday, locally heavy at times. High resolution models aren’t portraying as much rain for the valley as previous model runs. One model projects 1.29 at Bakersfield and .95 at Porterville. Other models show 1.50 to 2.00 n Bakersfield to 1.00 to 1.50 in southeastern Tulare County and between .50 and 1.00 over eastern Fresno County, and much of Kings County. Parts of Madera, Merced, and western Fresno County are projected to receive .25 to .50..
Heaviest rain will occur tonight into Monday morning. Expect showers with a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. There’s a chance of showers Tuesday morning, mainly near the foothills, otherwise, dry weather will prevail. Weak upper level high pressure will govern our weather Tuesday night through Friday with no excessively hot weather anticipated. Expect readings in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Friday. Models show a low center moving near the northern California coast later this weekend and show it staying there through the middle of the following week for somewhat cooler weather. Models do show some monsoonal moisture working its way through southern California and up the Sierra Nevada Wednesday through Friday with no rain for the valley.
Forecast Showers likely this morning. Rain likely this afternoon through Monday, locally heavy at times. Showers Monday night with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of a few showers near the foothills Tuesday morning, otherwise partly cloudy. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Sunday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
84/67/85/64/87 |
Reedley
82/67/86/65/87 |
Dinuba
82/68/85/64/88 |
| Porterville
80/68/85/64/88 |
Lindsay
80/68/86/64/88 |
Delano
79/69/85/66/87 |
| Bakersfield
78/70/85/70/86 |
Taft
79/67/83/67/84 |
Arvin
78/71/85/68/87 |
| Lamont
79/70/85/68/88 |
Pixley
79/68/85/64/87 |
Tulare
81/65/86/64/87 |
| Woodlake
81/66/86/65/88 |
Hanford
79/66/86/64/88 |
Orosi
80/67/84/63/87 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 65/95 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 67/98 |
Friday
Mostly clear 67/96 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 63/94 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 60/89 |
Two Week Outlook: August 27 through September 2 This model shows a ridge of high pressure over the west and off shore, resulting in marginally above average temperatures. The monsoon will remain active for a chance of PM storms over the mountains but dry weather over the valley floor.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: The wind forecast, especially for Kern County, is tricky at best this morning. As tropical storm Hilary moves through southern California, pressures will rapidly fall, setting the stage for some gusty winds over the mountains. Currently, it would appear winds will be out of the northeast with gusts in excess of 35 mph in Kern County, turning to the southeast later this afternoon and tonight. Gusts to 25 to 30 will be possible elsewhere on the valley floor. for Monday, expect winds to be variable to 20 mph with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers and possible thunderstorms. Expect variable winds Monday night through Wednesday to around 15 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours and generally at or less than 10 mph during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion: Widespread flooding can be expected over many areas of southern California. It will be most pronounced over the mountains and deserts where 4 to 6 inches of rain can be expected.
The warning cone this morning tracks tropical storm Hilary slightly further east. The center of circulation should be somewhere near Death Valley by 11:00 tonight. Showers can be expected this morning, turning to widespread rain later this afternoon, tonight, and Monday, locally heavy at times. High resolution models aren’t portraying as much rain for the valley as previous model runs. One model projects 1.29 at Bakersfield and .95 at Porterville. Other models show 1.50 to 2.00 n Bakersfield to 1.00 to 1.50 in southeastern Tulare County and between .50 and 1.00 over eastern Fresno County, and much of Kings County. Parts of Madera, Merced, and western Fresno County are projected to receive .25 to .50..
Heaviest rain will occur tonight into Monday morning. Expect showers with a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. There’s a chance of showers Tuesday morning, mainly near the foothills, otherwise, dry weather will prevail. Weak upper level high pressure will govern our weather Tuesday night through Friday with no excessively hot weather anticipated. Expect readings in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Friday. Models show a low center moving near the northern California coast later this weekend and show it staying there through the middle of the following week for somewhat cooler weather. Models do show some monsoonal moisture working its way through southern California and up the Sierra Nevada Wednesday through Friday with no rain for the valley.
If you don’t mind, could you send any rainfall totals you receive my way? Send them to johnhibler@gmail.com. Thanks in advance.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 50s rising into the low to mid 60s tonight and ‘Sunday. Kern: Mid to upper 50s rising into the low to mid 60s tonight and ‘Sunday.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.88, Parlier, 1.64, Arvin 1.96, Delano 1.69.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 82, Arvin 83, Delano 83 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 96/65 Record Temperatures: 108/54
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1506 +172 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: T
Average Temperature this Month 83.0 +2.6 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:21, Sunset, 7:42. hours of daylight, 13:24
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 83 / 65 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 84 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 88 / 65 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 100 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1649 / 100 / 73 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 94 / 65 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 96 / 66 / T /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 9.00 74 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.86 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 163 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.59 180 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP T 14.72 313 5.64 120 4.70 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.25 64 1.70 87 1.96 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.52 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 20 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.