August 21, 2023
Summary The following are storm totals as of roughly 4:00 this morning. Just as a broad brush, most locations in southern California received 2-4 inches of precipitation, 2-4 inches fell over the Kern County mountains, 3-5 inches over the Kern County deserts. Two remote locations in the mountains of LA county totaled 7 inches of rain. On the valley floor, Bakersfield recorded .99, Edison 1.75, Shafter 1.30, Belridge .87,
Wasco .03, Porterville .89, Visalia .71, Dinuba .53, Lemoore .26, Hanford .48, Clovis .36, Fresno .18, Delano .94, and Arvin 1.73. Quite an event, especially considering it was only August 20.
Hilary is no longer more than a tropical low which is centered over northcentral Nevada and is rocketing northward. There is still abundant moisture at all levels of the atmosphere in the wake of Hilary so the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue throughout the day.
A very weak upper low remains to the west of Monterey which will track northeastward and blunt the warming trend. Temperatures yesterday were only in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, for obvious reasons. Weak upper level high pressure will take over for Wednesday through Saturday. From Sunday through Tuesday, a low center will develop off the coast of Oregon and northern California. This will ensure a dry, southwesterly flow allowing drying conditions to improve with marginally below average temperatures late this weak and early next week.
Forecast Partly cloudy through this evening with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Becoming mostly clear later tonight and on through Monday of next week.
Temperatures:
| Madera
85/64/86/65/92 |
Reedley
86/64/87/65/93 |
Dinuba
85/64/86/64/91 |
| Porterville
85/63/87/64/93 |
Lindsay
86/64/87/65/92 |
Delano
87/67/86/66/92 |
| Bakersfield
85/68/87/69/92 |
Taft
84/67/85/70/90 |
Arvin
87/66/87/67/93 |
| Lamont
87/68/87/69/93 |
Pixley
85/64/86/65/91 |
Tulare
85/64/86/65/92 |
| Woodlake
85/63/86/64/91 |
Hanford
87/65/87/65/93 |
Orosi
85/63/86/64/91 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 67/97 |
Friday
Mostly clear 68/96 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 63/93 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 62/93 |
Monday
Mostly clear 61/98 |
Two Week Outlook: August 28 through September 3 This model shows a ridge of high pressure over the west and off shore, resulting in marginally above average temperatures. The monsoon will remain active for a chance of PM storms over the mountains but dry weather over the valley floor.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be variable to 15 mph. Stronger gusts are possible in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms. Winds tonight through Thursday will be generally at or less than 7mph nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the afternoons will generally be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph through Thursday.
Rain Discussion: Even though Hilary is dead as far as being a tropical system is concerned, abundant moisturue remains in her wake. As the daytime heating process gets underway, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible, mainly after 11:00am. All the activity should be over by later this evening with dry weather Tuesday and for the remainder of the week. rainfall amounts from this point on will be quite spotty and generally less than .10. Heavier amounts are possible if thunderstorms develop.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 50s rising into the low to mid 60s tonight and ‘Sunday. Kern: Mid to upper 50s rising into the low to mid 60s tonight and ‘Sunday.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.61, Parlier, 1.51, Arvin 1.80, Delano 1.57.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 82, Arvin 83, Delano 83 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 96/65 Record Temperatures: 108/51
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1515 +166 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: T
Average Temperature this Month 82.6 +2.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:22, Sunset, 7:41. hours of daylight, 13:22
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 86 / 71 / 0.06 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 70 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 72 / 0.05 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 78 / 70 / 0.27 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 69 / 0.19 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1649 / 81 / 72 / 0.35 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 78 / 70 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 70 / 0.22 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON M M M M M M 13.45
MODESTO M M M M M M 12.27
MERCED 0.06 20.92 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.01 11.63 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.02 17.88 163 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.08 14.86 184 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.52 10.78 171 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.56 15.39 327 5.64 120 4.71 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.84 2.09 107 1.70 87 1.96 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.52 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 20 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.