August 31, 2023
Summary The first signs of a major cooling trend are already evident. The marine layer,, which yesterday stood at only 800 feet has deepened to 1,900 feet this morning. Modified marine air will surge down the valley this afternoon and evening. Temperatures this afternoon will probably drop about 5 to 6 degrees in Merced County but from Fresno County south, temperatures will still push the century mark as the marine air will arrive too late to do much good today. The air aloft is still quite warm. The freezing level has only dropped down to 17,300 feet. A trough of low pressure is currently digging southward through the. Northwest and is displacing the southwestern high back into New Mexico and Oklahoma. The low will track slowly eastward through the weekend, exiting via the Great Basin Sunday and Monday. temperatures will drop into the low to mid 80s over the weekend, warming back up into the low to mid 90s over the weekend. A tropical system shows up southwest of Cabo not this weekend but next weekend. However, if current models are accurate, the configuration would not favor moisture moving into California.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
97/59/88/58/84 |
Reedley
99/60/89/58/86 |
Dinuba
98/59/89/57/86 |
| Porterville
99/61/89/57/86 |
Lindsay
98/59/88/56/86 |
Delano
99/61/89/57/85 |
| Bakersfield
100/68/91/63/88 |
Taft
98/68/87/61/84 |
Arvin
100/65/90/62/87 |
| Lamont
99/64/90/62/85 |
Pixley
99/61/89/57/86 |
Tulare
97/60/87/57/86 |
| Woodlake
98/59/88/56/86 |
Hanford
99/62/89/57/85 |
Orosi
98/62/89/57/86 |
eer
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Mostly clear 57/84 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/88 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 59/93 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 62/93 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 63/94 |
Two Week Outlook: September 7 through September 13: This model indicates high pressure will be parked over the desert southwest with a weak trough of low pressure along the Pacific coast. This configuration will result in near average temperatures for the valley with dry conditions continuing.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through the early afternoon hours will be generally light and variable. Later this afternoon through tonight, winds will be out of the west/northwest at 10-20 mph. Winds Friday through Sunday will be mainly out of the west/northwest at 10 to 20 mph with locally stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.79, Parlier, 1.62, Arvin 1.81, Delano 1.65.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Arvin 81, Delano 79 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 95/63 Record Temperatures: 107/50
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1677 +189 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 82.0 +2.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:30, Sunset, 7:27. hours of daylight, 13:00
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
: …Valley…
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 96 / 57 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 98 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 69 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 98 / 60 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 95 / 70 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 63 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 93 / 60 / 0.00
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 9.00 74 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.67 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 165 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 186 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 180 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.60 351 5.64 119 4.73 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.47 174 1.89 95 2.00 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.25 13.32
Next report: September 1
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.