September 9, 2023
Summary There was somewhat of a surprise during the early morning hours as the first outer band from tropical storm Jova became caught up in the southwesterly flow above central California, resulting in variable cloudiness with even a few isolated feeble thunderstorms crossing the valley. To my knowledge, just trace amounts of precipitation have occurred. There’s a bit of a gap between the current cloud cover and the far rim of the moisture now unwinding from Jova. This cloud cover will reach the region later today and will last through Tuesday in the form of variable cloudiness at times. There’s no real trigger in the atmosphere for significant precipitation to occur. Trace amounts are possible beginning tonight and lasting through Tuesday and a few hundredths in isolated areas would not be a total shock. After today, Jova will become a tropical depression and will drift further west out over the ocean. The moisture field will dry up Tuesday night as more of a westerly flow develops. Tranquil weather will last through next weekend with marginally below average temperatures through next weekend. Some models are showing a strong ridge building along the west coast next Monday for potentially hot weather.
Forecast Variable cloudiness, mainly north of Kern County, this morning with a chance of sprinkles. Mostly clear this afternoon. Variable cloudiness tonight through Tuesday with a chance of sprinkles. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
97/69/93/68/94 |
Reedley
97/71/94/68/94 |
Dinuba
96/70/93/69/93 |
| Porterville
98/71/93/71/95 |
Lindsay
98/69/94/70/95 |
Delano
98/72/94/71/94 |
| Bakersfield
98/75/94/73/94 |
Taft
96/75/92/72/92 |
Arvin
99/73/95/72/95 |
| Lamont
99/74/95/73/95 |
Pixley
98/70/94/69/94 |
Tulare
96/69/95/69/95 |
| Woodlake
97/70/95/70/94 |
Hanford
97/71/95/70/95 |
Orosi
96/68/94/69/93 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Variable clouds 62/94 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 60/92 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 60/91 |
Friday
Mostly clear 61/92 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/90 |
Two Week Outlook: September 14 through September 20: This model indicates high pressure will be parked over the desert southwest with a weak trough of low pressure along the Pacific coast. This configuration will result in near average temperatures for the valley with dry conditions continuing.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be at or less than 15 mph through Tuesday during the afternoons and evenings and generally at or less than 10 mph during the nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The first outer band of now tropical storm Jova began moving through the valley overnight. Sprinkles did occur in a few locations with even a few lightning strikes. Beginning later today or tonight, a much larger field of moisture will get caught up in a southwesterly flow aloft, resulting in variable cloudiness at times through Tuesday. It’s possible the cloud cover may be dense enough at times for a few sprinkles during this time frame with even a few hundredths of an inch being possible in isolated locations. Unlike Hilary which took a path just to our east, Jova is moving northwest and will soon move westward, further out to sea, meaning the deep tropical moisture will remain off shore. After Tuesday, dry weather will prevail.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.33, Parlier, 1.31, Arvin 1.49, Delano 1.37.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 76, Arvin 80, Delano 76 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 93/62 Record Temperatures: 107/50
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1747 +182 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 75.3 -2.5 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:37, Sunset, 7:14. hours of daylight, 12:40
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 59 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 99 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 60 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 97 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 98 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 97 / 63 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 94 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.18 165 9.00 74 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.67 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 165 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 186 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 179 5.41 86 6.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.60 350 5.65 119 4.74 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 178 1.89 93 2.04 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.90 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.08 182 7.79 59 13.26 13.32
Next report: September 11
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.