September 26, 2023
Summary A broad trough of low pressure continues to extend from the Gulf of Alaska to central California. A southwesterly flow aloft through the bottom of the trough is evident over central California. The basic players in this pattern will continue through Thursday night. A secondary low will dig southward along the Oregon/northern California coast Thursday through Friday, forming a closed low over central and southern California. Models are coming up with various solutions to this pattern, ranging from just partly cloudy skies with the GFS model even forecasting a good chance of shower over the mountain areas with a slight chance on the valley floor Saturday into Sunday. A relatively cold pool of air will settle over the region, lowering temperatures well down into the 70s Saturday into Sunday. This storm will finally pull off into the Great Basin Monday. a broad based pattern change is due by the middle of next week as upper level high pressure builds in from the west, driving the storm track well north of California by the middle of next week.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday nigh leading to a slight chance of showers Saturday through Sunday. Partly cloudy Monday. mostly clear Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 83/53/83/53/82 | Reedley 84/55/83/55/82 | Dinuba 82/53/82/52/82 |
| Porterville 84/53/84/52/83 | Lindsay 83/52/83/52/81 | Delano 85/55/84/54/83 |
| Bakersfield 84/59/84/60/83 | Taft 81/59/80/60/79 | Arvin 85/56/85/55/84 |
| Lamont 85/55/85/55/84 | Pixley 84/54/83/55/83 | Tulare 83/52/83/53/82 |
| Woodlake 84/55/84/54/83 | Hanford 84/55/84/54/83 | Orosi 83/52/83/52/82 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Mostly clear 84/54 | Saturday Slight chance of showers 53/72 | Sunday Slight chance of shower 53/75 | Monday Partly cloudy 54/79 | Tuesday Mostly clear 52/83 |
Two Week Outlook: October 2 through September October 9 This model is showing a broad area of low pressure over and along the coast, resulting in below average temperatures. The chance for precipitation will remain extremely low.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph with stronger gusts through Friday morning. From Friday afternoon through Saturday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. gusts over 20 mph will be possible, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through Friday night. There are various model solutions for Saturday through Sunday. Most show dry weather with a chance of showers over the mountains. One model does show a threat of showers over the valley floor this weekend. This makes nervous enough to add a chance of showers to the forecast for Saturday into Sunday. Any amounts would be extremely light. After the weekend, high pressure will take over, resulting in a prolonged period of dry weather.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.28, Parlier, 1.15, Arvin 1.30, Delano 1.17.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 75, Arvin 79, Delano 74 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 87/58 Record Temperatures: 107/43
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1967 +225 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 76.8 +1.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise ,6:51 Sunset, 6:48. hours of daylight, 12:00
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 87 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 58 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 76 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 90 / 61 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 173 9.87 74 13.42 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.20 165 9.08 74 12.25 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.64 65 11.78 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.71 109 2.75 26 10.78 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 164 6.40 58 10.97 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 186 6.38 79 8.11 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 179 5.41 85 6.35 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.61 345 6.73 140 4.81 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 168 2.04 94 2.17 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.38 59 12.56 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.91 172 9.08 75 12.13 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.08 181 9.63 72 13.30 13.32
Next report: September 27 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.