September 29, 2023
Summary A trough of low pressure extends from British Columbia to central California. A secondary low will develop just off the northern California coast tonight. It will slide southward over central California Saturday. The air mass has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska, meaning temperatures will plummet Saturday and remain well below average through Monday. the dynamics of this system are such where there will be a chance of measurable rain anywhere Saturday and Saturday night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold pool of air moves in overhead. This will be the first snowfall over the high Sierra with models indicating 3 to 6 inches of snow about 8,000 feet. Temperatures on the valley floor will tumble into the lower 70s Saturday with possible upper 60s if a cloud canopy is dense enough. As the low moves inland, gusty northwesterly winds will move down the valley. By Saturday afternoon, the center of circulation will be over northern Nevada then over Utah on Monday. Monday for us will be a transition day between the incoming weather pattern and the low. Temperatures will jump to near 90 Wednesday and the low to mid 90s Thursday and on through next weekend. Even the 10 day and two week models are indicating a warm, dry weather pattern, so once we get beyond Tuesday, Indian summer will manifest itself in our region.
Forecast Mostly clear today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. A chance of showers Saturday and Saturday night. A slight chance of showers, mainly near the foothills, Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon and on through Friday with a warming trend.
Temperatures:
| Madera 85/58/71/54/73 | Reedley 86/55/71/55/73 | Dinuba 84/56/71/56/72 |
| Porterville 86/56/70/56/72 | Lindsay 85/55/70/55/71 | Delano 86/57/71/55/72 |
| Bakersfield 87/61/72/59/72 | Taft 83/60/70/56/69 | Arvin 87/58/72/53/71 |
| Lamont 86/57/72/56/73 | Pixley 85/55/70/54/73 | Tulare 84/54/70/54/72 |
| Woodlake 85/55/71/55/72 | Hanford 86/56/72/54/72 | Orosi 84/54/71/55/72 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Partly cloudy 54/79 | Tuesday Mostly clear 53/85 | Wednesday Mostly clear 55/90 | Thursday Mostly clear 57/92 | Friday Mostly clear 57/93 |
Two Week Outlook: October 6 through October 12 Upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific and much of the western US during this period. The result will be above average temperatures and little, if any, chance of precipitation.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally less than15 mph today. Winds tonight through Saturday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible, mainly along the west side. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be light and variable nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions and generally at or less than 15 mph during the afternoons.
Rain Discussion. The chance of showers will begin to increase Saturday morning, becoming more widespread Saturday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon through the evening hours. The risk of showers will begin to decrease Saturday night and Sunday with most of the activity by then being near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Dry weather will return Sunday night and will continue all through next week and well into the following week. Rainfall amounts will be spotty wth the greatest risk being north of Kern County. Locations that do report measurable rain will likely tally no more than .10. However, upwards of .25 could be measured in heavier showers and where any thunderstorms hit.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.28, Parlier, 1.13, Arvin 1.31, Delano 1.16.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 74, Arvin 78, Delano 73 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 86/57 Record Temperatures: 102/43
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2018 +231 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 76.3 +1.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise ,6:53 Sunset, 6:44. hours of daylight, 11:53
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 85 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 86 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 173 9.87 73 13.44 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.20 165 9.08 74 12.26 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.64 65 11.79 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.71 109 2.75 25 10.79 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 164 6.40 58 10.98 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 185 6.38 79 8.12 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 178 5.41 85 6.36 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.61 345 6.73 140 4.82 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 166 2.04 93 2.19 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.38 59 12.57 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.91 172 9.08 75 12.14 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.08 181 9.63 72 13.31 13.32
Next report: September 30 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.