September 30, 2023
Summary Since this is the last day of the water year, I listed weather stations from throughout California to show you how well we did over the past 12 months. Most locations were between one-hundred fifty to two-hundred percent of average. This new season, we’ll have a fairly strong El Nino to deal with which, historically, gives us a better than even chance at above average rainfall. It would be great to see two rainfall seasons go back to back with above average rainfall. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already broken out over the Sierra Nevada. Doppler radar is showing some light showers over Merced County. All of this is ushering in an active weather day for central California. A cold trough of low pressure extends from British Columbia all the way southward to southern California. A secondary disturbance is developing over northcentral California. A cold front extends from that low into the northern San Joaquin Valley then off shore. The freezing level has dropped to 9,000 feet over Oakland and 6,500 feet over Medford, Oregon. Once the daytime heating process gets underway, scattered showers wll break out along with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms. The storm’s best dynamics will move through the valley today with a diminishing chance of showers tonight and dry weather returning Sunday. Temperatures will plummet today with readings struggling to reach 70 in most areas. The back side of the low will still be over California Sunday so readings will remain cool. As the trough pulls further east Monday, high pressure aloft will begin to encroach California from the eastern Pacific. By Wednesday, the high will be centered just off the northern California coast, resulting in significant warming. Highs will push 90 Wednesday then move into the low to possibly mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Models show the high building into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia from Thursday on with above average temperatures lasting at least until week after next.
Forecast Variable clouds today and tonight with scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. A chance of showers tonight, mainly during the evening hours. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Saturday with a warming trend.
Temperatures:
| Madera 69/54/72/54/78 | Reedley 70/53/73/52/79 | Dinuba 69/53/72/52/78 |
| Porterville 70/53/73/52/79 | Lindsay 69/51/72/50/78 | Delano 71/55/72/52/79 |
| Bakersfield 72/56/73/58/78 | Taft 70/53/67/58/73 | Arvin 70/56/74/56/79 |
| Lamont 72/56/73/52/80 | Pixley 69/54/72/54/78 | Tulare 69/52/71/50/77 |
| Woodlake 71/52/73/51/79 | Hanford 71/55/72/53/79 | Orosi 70/53/72/53/78 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Mostly clear 54/84 | Wednesday Mostly clear 55/89 | Thursday Mostly clear 57/92 | Friday Mostly clear 57/93 | Saturday Mostly clear 58/93 |
Two Week Outlook: October 7 through October 13 Upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific and much of the western US during this period. The result will be above average temperatures and little, if any, chance of precipitation.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally out of the west to northwest through this evening at 10 to 20 mph at times. Local gusts to 3 mph will be possible, especially in Kings County and western Fresno County. Winds will decrease tonight to around 10 to 15 mph. Winds Sunday will continue mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion. At this early morning hour, light showers are showing up on Doppler radar over Merced County. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Sierra Nevada from Tulare County north. More showers will break out later today with an isolated thunderstorm or two being possible. The showers will diminish by later this evening with dry weather returning Sunday. Expect dry weather for all of next week and into the following week. rainfall amounts will be generally less than .10 from this event. Localized amounts of .25 are possible, especially if thunderstorms develop.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.30, Parlier, 1.15, Arvin 1.31, Delano 1.16.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 74, Arvin 77, Delano 73 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 86/57 Record Temperatures: 101/37
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2024 +231 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 76.1 +1.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise ,6:54 Sunset, 6:42. hours of daylight, 11:51
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 85 / 51 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 76 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 84 / 68 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 83 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
KLAMATH FALLS OR 0.00 10.14 91 7.73 69 11.13 11.14
CRESCENT CITY 0.10 51.02 88 44.99 78 57.91 57.98
EUREKA 0.02 42.71 106 26.78 66 40.36 40.40
UKIAH 0.00 39.14 112 21.55 62 34.83 34.84
MONTAGUE / SISKIYOU 0.00 9.64 81 5.41 45 11.97 11.99
ALTURAS 0.00 17.21 148 8.48 73 11.66 11.68
MOUNT SHASTA CITY 0.03 45.80 122 21.30 57 37.59 42.63
REDDING 0.00 40.96 122 19.75 59 33.49 33.52
RED BLUFF 0.00 27.15 117 13.26 57 23.11 23.12
SACRAMENTO EXEC AIRPORT 0.00 21.94 121 16.82 93 18.13 18.14
SACRAMENTO – CSUS 0.00 26.22 137 17.10 89 19.19 19.20
BLUE CANYON AIRPORT* 0.00 88.86 142 63.22 101 62.40 62.44
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 0.00 38.39 188 19.94 98 20.44 20.46
SANTA ROSA 0.00 42.02 124 27.13 80 33.77 33.78
SAN FRANCISCO 0.00 33.85 148 19.12 84 22.88 22.89
SFO INT’L AIRPORT 0.00 31.43 160 18.45 94 19.63 19.64
OAKLAND AIRPORT T 30.77 165 17.44 93 18.67 18.68
LIVERMORE 0.00 21.14 139 12.83 85 15.17 15.18
SAN JOSE INT’L AIRPORT 0.00 15.31 114 7.81 58 13.47 13.48
…CENTRAL CALIFORNIA…
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 173 9.87 73 13.44 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.20 165 9.08 74 12.26 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.64 65 11.79 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.71 109 2.75 25 10.79 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 164 6.40 58 10.99 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 185 6.38 78 8.13 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 178 5.41 85 6.36 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.61 344 6.73 139 4.83 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 166 2.04 93 2.19 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.38 59 12.58 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.91 172 9.08 75 12.14 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 24.08 181 9.63 72 13.31 13.32
Next report: October 1 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.