October 3, 2023
Summary California is currently sandwiched between upper level high pressure off shore and the exiting low pressure system currently over the Rockies. The high, which is a large system, will build inland over the western US over the next 72 hours, continuing the warming trend that began yesterday. The balloon sounding over Vandenberg AFB this morning has risen to 13, 900 feet. It was 9,500 feet 48 hours ago. The marine layer along the coast has been reestablished, but is very shallow at just 600 feet at Monterey. Friday and Saturday will be the warmest this week as readings move into the low to mid 90s. By Sunday, the high will begin to be suppressed southward and eastward as a trough of low pressure sinks southward into the Pacific Northwest. For the period Monday through Wednesday, a zone of weak upper level high pressure will stretch from the eastern Pacific across California. The storm track will run from west to east across the Paciifc Northwest. By Tuesday of next week, temperatures will be near normal with readings in the low to mid 80s.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Saturday with a warming trend. Mostly clear Saturday night through Tuesday with a slow cooling trend.
Temperatures:
| Madera 83/55/89/57/91 | Reedley 84/56/89/59/92 | Dinuba 81/53/88/57/90 |
| Porterville 82/54/88/58/91 | Lindsay 82/53/87/57/91 | Delano 83/56/88/58/92 |
| Bakersfield 82/62/89/64/93 | Taft 80/61/87/64/89 | Arvin 84/58/90/61/92 |
| Lamont 83/58/90/61/93 | Pixley 83/57/89/59/91 | Tulare 81/53/87/57/89 |
| Woodlake 82/54/87/58/91 | Hanford 82/55/88/58/91 | Orosi 81/53/87/56/90 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Mostly clear 59/93 | Saturday Mostly clear 59/94 | Sunday Mostly clear 58/90 | Monday Mostly clear 56/87 | Tuesday Mostly clear 53/83 |
Two Week Outlook: October 9 through October 15 This model indicates above average temperatures will continue during this period. There will be a chance of showers over northern California with a slight chance over central California.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remans to be seen.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable at 8 to 15 mph through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.09, Parlier, .97, Arvin 1.16, Delano 1.00.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 70, Arvin 75, Delano 69 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 85/56 Record Temperatures: 101/41
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2028 +224 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 65.8 -4.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise ,6:57 Sunset, 6:38. hours of daylight, 11:44
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 51 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 80 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 78 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 57 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 78 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 50 0.00 0 0.02 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 1500 0.00 0 0.01 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 900 0.00 0 0.02 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 50 0.00 0 0.02 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.32
Next report: October 4 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.