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October 4, 2023

Trudy Hibler

October 4, 2023

Summary  Relatively strong upper level high pressure is centered roughly 400 miles west of the California coast. The eastern flank of the high has moved inland over the western ¼ of the US. The clockwise flow around the high has resulted in a weak northerly flow aloft. Sinking air underneath the high will result in the warming trend continuing. Warmest locations this afternoon will touch the 100 degree mark then climb into the low to mid 90s Thursday through Sunday. The marine layer is only 400 feet deep at Monterey, so there’s no chance of the marine influence through the weekend. The air aloft is quite warm. The freezing level now stands at 16,000 feet, according to the latest balloon sounding over Vandenburg AFB. Monday will be a transition day as a weak trough of low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska suppresses the high eastward. By Tuesday, there will be enough of an onshore flow for marine air to move down the valley. A flat zone of high pressure will be evident Wednesday through Friday, maintaining dry weather and near average temperatures. 

Forecast Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.     

Temperatures:

Madera 89/58/92/60/93Reedley 90/57/93/59/94Dinuba 88/57/91/58/93
Porterville 89/56/92/59/94Lindsay 89/56/92/58/93Delano 90/58/93/60/94
Bakersfield 90/63/93/66/95Taft 87/65/90/67/92Arvin 91/61/94/63/95
Lamont 91/63/94/63/95Pixley 89/58/92/60/93Tulare 88/57/91/60/92
Woodlake 89/57/91/59/93Hanford 89/58/92/60/93Orosi 88/56/90/61/93

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday Mostly clear 59/94Sunday Mostly clear 57/93Monday Mostly clear 56/90Tuesday Mostly clear 54/88Wednesday Mostly clear 52/83

Two Week Outlook:  October 11 through October 17  This model indicates above average temperatures will continue during this period. There will be a chance of showers over northern California with a slight chance over central California.  

October:  This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.

October, November, December  This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remans to be seen.

Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable at 8 to 15 mph through Saturday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be less than 5 mph with periods of  near calm conditions.                 

Rain Discussion.  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.  

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.07, Parlier, .94, Arvin 1.14, Delano 1.09.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 70, Arvin 75, Delano 69 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 84/55,  Record Temperatures: 102/42

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  2033 +219 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  T, Monthly  .T

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .15, Monthly:  .15

Average Temperature this Month 66.5 -3.2 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford,  Delano,  Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise ,6:57 Sunset, 6:37.  hours of daylight, 11:41

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H       

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  84 /  52 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  85 /  51 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  83 /  60 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  85 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  85 /  50 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  83 /  57 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  82 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  83 /  53 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  85 /  55 / 0.00 /

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.03    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.03    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    0.01    33    0.00     0     0.03    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.02    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.02    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.02     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.15  1500    0.00     0     0.01     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.18   600    0.00     0     0.03     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.02     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    0.01    33    0.00     0     0.03    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.03    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.02    13.32

Next report: October 5                                                                                                                                                                  At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.