October 16, 2023
Summary Upper level high pressure has shifted eastward into Arizona and Utah as a weak trough of low pressure makes its move on northern California. The trough will move through central California tonight and will be marked by partly cloudy skies. A dry cold front will move through the valley late this evening, accompanied by an increase in northwesterly winds down the valley but little else. Temperatures will fall back Wednesday into the lower 80s. this will be a short lived cool down as a ridge of upper level high pressure builds in from the west Wednesday and centers virtually right overhead Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will quickly respond with temperatures moving into the low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Another trough will move through over the weekend. This will also be a dry system but should push temperatures down to the upper 70s—lower 80s by Sunday and Monday of next week. the pattern for next Wednesday and beyond is currently difficult to narrow down. The GFS model shows a low center moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, swinging inland over northern and central California by Wednesday of next week. if this model holds any credence, we would have a decent shot at rain. Since this is the first day this has shown up on models, we’ll take it with a grain of salt and wait to see what future model runs hold.
Forecast Mostly clear skies today. Partly cloudy tonight and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear and warmer Wednesday through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 85/52/81/52/88 | Reedley 86/53/82/52/88 | Dinuba 84/51/81/52/87 |
| Porterville 87/53/82/53/89 | Lindsay 86/52/82/52/88 | Delano 87/54/83/51/89 |
| Bakersfield 87/52/82/60/90 | Taft 83/60/80/61/86 | Arvin 87/56/83/57/89 |
| Lamont 87/56/82/57/90 | Pixley 86/54/82/55/89 | Tulare 84/52/81/51/87 |
| Woodlake 85//54/81/54/88 | Hanford 86/54/82/54/88 | Orosi 84/52/81/51/87 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Mostly clear 55/92 | Friday Mostly clear 56/93 | Saturday Mostly clear 53/84 | Sunday Mostly clear 51/79 | Monday Mostly clear 48/77 |
Two Week Outlook: October 23 through October 29 This model shows a trough of low pressure affecting most of the western US, lowering temperatures to near seasonal levels. There will also be at least some chance of precipitation.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Wnds this morning will be generally at or less than 10 mph. Later this afternoon and tonight, winds will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to near 20 mph, mainly along the west side. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion. Expect dry conditions through at least Tuesday of next week. one model shows a rather robust low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, approaching central California around Wednesday of next week. this model does show a chance of rain from next Wednesday all the way through Friday. Since this is the only model showing this chance, we’ll take this with a grain of salt but will closely watch future model runs.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.08, Parlier, .88 , Arvin 1.05, Delano .96.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier *, Arvin 73, Delano 68 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 79/52, Record Temperatures: 96/36
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2102 +251 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 70.2 +2.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:08. Sunset, 6:20. hours of daylight, 11:14
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.22 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.17 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 5 0.00 0 0.20 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.17 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.15 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 214 0.00 0 0.07 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 106 T 0 0.17 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.07 35 T 0 0.20 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.17 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.16 13.32
Next report: October 17
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.