October 19, 2023
Summary Strong upper level high pressure is almost directly above central California this morning. The warm bubble of subsiding air will drive temperatures into the low to mid 90s both today and Friday. The high has crushed the marine layer down to 500 feet. The air aloft is extraordinarily warm for this late in the season with a freezing level of 17,000 feet. This little bout of Indian summer will not last long. A rapid cooling trend will begin Saturday. As a low pressure system from the northeast Pacific dives into northern California Saturday, temperatures will drop a good ten degrees and another ten to fifteen degrees Sunday and Monday. highs Monday may only reach into the mid to upper 60s. Even though this system is starved for moisture, there will be enough dynamics for showers over the high Sierra with even a small chance of a few light showers over the valley floor Sunday night and Monday, mainly from Fresno County north. The low will drop into northern Baja Tuesday, allowing upper level high pressure to begin filling in from the west. This weather note: on this date in 1949, the temperature dropped to 30 degrees at the Fresno Air Terminal, the earliest subfreezing date on record..
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday night. Variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday night with a small chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday. partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 93/58/93/58/82 | Reedley 95/57/95/56/83 | Dinuba 93/57/93/56/82 |
| Porterville 95/57//95/56/82 | Lindsay 94/56/93/56/82 | Delano 95/59/94/57/83 |
| Bakersfield 96/68/96/64/85 | Taft 93/68/92/65/82 | Arvin 97/63/96/62/84 |
| Lamont 96/62/95/62/83 | Pixley 93/56/93/58/82 | Tulare 92/56/92/55/81 |
| Woodlake 93/56/93/56/82 | Hanford 95/57/94/57/83 | Orosi 92/56/92/57/81 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Pm showers possible 54/74 | Monday Chance of light showers 54/67 | Tuesday Partly cloudy 46/77 | Wednesday Mostly clear 47/82 | Thursday Mostly clear 47’/81 |
Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1: This model indicates a large upper high will be over the eastern Pacific and western US. This will result in above average temperatures with very little chance of precipitation.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature wth periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday night through Sunday will periodically be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts possible.
Rain Discussion. It still appears we will have a minimal chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday as a northeast Pacific low dives southeastward into California. Even though this system is carrying little moisture, the best dynamics will be right over central California. Expect a minimal chance of light showers,, mainly from Fresno County north Sunday night and Monday. precipitation amounts, if any, will be generally at or less than .10. expect dry weather beginning Monday night and continuing the remainder of next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.02, Parlier, .85 , Arvin 1.03, Delano .92.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier *, Arvin 72, Delano 68 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 77/51, Record Temperatures: 92/30
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2126 +266 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 70.0 +3.0 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:11. Sunset, 6:16. hours of daylight, 11:07
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 90 / 52 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.30 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.23 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 4 0.00 0 0.27 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.17 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.23 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.20 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 150 0.00 0 0.10 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 86 T 0 0.21 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.07 27 T 0 0.26 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.24 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.21 13.32
Next report: October 20
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.