October 21, 2023
Summary A low pressure system is approaching the northern California coast and will move southeastward into central California Sunday and Sunday night. For the past few days, models have indicated this system may be strong enough for the likelihood of showers over the southern Sierra Nevada and a minimal chance over the valley floor Sunday afternoon and night. The first effects of this change are already underway as the marine layer is now over 2,000 feet deep and is surging through the Delta and down the valley. Winds north of Kern County are generally in the 5 to 15 mph range. It will be noticeably cooler today as temperatures will drop from the low to mid 90s yesterday to the low to mid 80s today and the low to mid 70s Sunday and Monday. by Monday afternoon, the low will drop into northern Baja. As a second low develops over the Pacific Northwest and drops into California and Nevada Wednesday yet another cooling trend will commence. The above average temperatures we’ve observed recently will be replaced by near to somewhat below average temperatures for this upcoming week. it looks like the only chance of rain for the upcoming week will be late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Forecast Other than the occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through tonight. Partly cloudy Sunday morning. Variable cloudiness Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with a minimal chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. Becoming mostly clear Monday through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday. mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 82/52/76/53/72 | Reedley 84/53/76/55/72 | Dinuba 82/52/75/54/71 |
| Porterville 84/53/77/55/71 | Lindsay 83/52/76/54/70 | Delano 85/54/76/54/72 |
| Bakersfield 87/57/75/60/68 | Taft 85/59/75/60/70 | Arvin 87/57/77/60/69 |
| Lamont 86/56/66/76/70 | Pixley 84/53/77/55/71 | Tulare 83/52/75/55/71 |
| Woodlake 83/53/75/54/72 | Hanford 84//53/76/55/71 | Orosi 82/52//75/54/71 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Mostly clear 50/79 | Wednesday Partly cloudy 50/77 | Thursday Partly cloudy 50/72 | Friday Mostly clear 43/70 | Saturday Mostly clear 40/72 |
Two Week Outlook: October 28 through November 3: This model indicates the storm track will be aimed mainly at the Pacific Northwest and northern California. There will be a chance of showers from mainly Merced north. Temperatures will be marginally above seasonal values.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest today at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts possible. Winds tonight through Monday will be occasionally out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with periods of lighter winds.
Rain Discussion. I want to keep at least a minimal chance of light showers or sprinkles in the forecast, mainly rom late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. The best chance of light showers will be from Fresno County north although I can’t completely eliminate the chance over the south valley. If measurable rain does occur, it likely won’t be more than .10 at any given location. a second system will move through Wednesday and Wednesday night, but for it appears the bulk of this system’s energy will go into Nevada rather than central California.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .97, Parlier, .87, Arvin 1.04, Delano .92.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier *, Arvin 72, Delano 68 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 77/50, Record Temperatures: 93/34
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2135 +274 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 70.2 +3.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:13. Sunset, 6:13. hours of daylight, 11:03
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 56 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 95 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 94 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 91 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.27 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 3 0.00 0 0.32 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.21 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.28 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.24 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 125 0.00 0 0.12 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 78 T 0 0.23 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.07 23 T 0 0.30 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.28 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.25 13.32
Next report: October 23
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