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October 26, 2023

October 26, 2023

Summary  currently, a trough of low pressure is moving rapidly through the Great Basin while a ridge of upper level high pressure builds into the Gulf of Alaska. In the meantime, a large low pressure center over Hudson Bay will develop a trough southwestward into California by Friday night. Over the weekend, a surface high will take shape over the Great Basin. A combination of all these factors will generate an off shore flow this weekend, injecting a drier air mass down the valley. Since dry air heats and cools more rapidly than moist air, temperatures by Monday will drop down into the  30s at many locations on the valley floor. it’s possible, that by early Monday morning, coldest locations could dip down to the 32 degree mark for the first time this season. It will just depend on where dew points ultimately wind up. However, no widespread frost is anticipated. In the short term, temperatures today will drop a good 8 to 10 degrees with models coming in at the 70 degree mark both  today and Friday. Readings will drop into the upper 60s Saturday as a cooler, drier air mass settles in. by Monday, upper level high pressure off shore will begin to build inland, resulting in a warming trend. Medium range models are still hinting at some wet weather beginning on the third as upper level high pressure drops southwestward, allowing the possibility of a series of storms to oroe in from the eastern Pacific.

Forecast  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.

Temperatures

Madera 69/42/69//41/66Reedley 71/43/69/40/66Dinuba 70/42//68/43/67
Porterville 71/41/69/40/67Lindsay 70/42/69/40//68Delano 71/43/68/41/67
Bakersfield 71/50/69/49/67Taft 66/49/65/48/61Arvin 71/47/69/43/67
Lamont 71//47/69/44/68Pixley 70/44/69//40/66Tulare 70/42/69/39/68
Woodlake 70/43/68/40/66Hanford 71/43/68/48/67Orosi 69/42/69/39/67

Seven Day Forecast

Sunday Mostly clear 38/70Monday Mostly clear 35/73Tuesday Mostly clear 36/77Wednesday Mostly clear 39/79Thursday Mostly clear 42/78

Two Week Outlook:  November 1 through November 7     This model shows periodic chances of rain for the northern 1/3 of California with a small chance of showers over central California, generally north of Fresno. temperatures will run somewhat above average.   

October:  This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.

October, November, December  This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.

Wind Discussion  Winds through this evening will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20. Winds tonight through Friday night will be generally less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday will again be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds Sunday will be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.  

Rain Discussion.  Expect dry weather for at least the next week. models the past few days have been hinting at a possible change near November 3. On paper, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will move further out to sea. Ths will allow a moist north to northwest flow into California. Theoretically, this could allow a series of storms to move into California. We’ll continue to monitor.

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .84, Parlier, .72, Arvin 86, Delano .77.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier *, Arvin 71, Delano 68 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 74/48,  Record Temperatures: 89/35

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  2158 +292 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  T, Monthly  .T

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .30, Monthly:  .30

Average Temperature this Month 69.8 +4.0  taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford,  Delano,  Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 7:18.  Sunset, 6:07.  hours of daylight, 10:52

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H       

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1648 /  66 /  48 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  69 /  49 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  70 /  57 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  69 /  52 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  81 /  50 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  79 /  53 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  80 /  55 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  72 /  53 / 0.00 /

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.19    40    0.00     0     0.48    13.45

MODESTO                          T    0.42   111    0.00     0     0.38    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    0.16    36    0.00     0     0.45    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.02     7    0.00     0     0.30    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.39    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.33     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.30   167    0.00     0     0.18     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.18    64       T     0     0.28     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.10     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    0.22    52    0.01     2     0.42    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.39    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00       T     0       T     0     0.36    13.32

Next report:   October 27                                                                                                                                                            

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.