November 9, 2023
Summary Overnight lows have dropped back to near seasonal levels. as as of 5:30am have chilled into the mid 30s to the lower 40s. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure is over California this morning which will allow daytime highs to push the 70 degree mark in most areas. What is left of a weak trough of low pressure will move through tonight and early Friday. This will be marked by increasing clouds with a slightly cooler air mass. A stronger ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend, warming readings into the low to mid 70s Sunday and Monday. an eastern Pacific low will drop southward off the west coast Sunday and Monday. this feature will cut off of the southern flank, forming a new low off the northern California coast. This system will be fed by cold air from the Gulf of Alaska and a possible tropical connection surging in from the southwest. All indications are that this will develop into a strong low which will hang off shore all the way into Friday. Latest models are showing it remaining far enough off shore to keep precipitation off shore until at least Wednesday night and possibly Thursday. The best chance of precipitation will begin later Wednesday night and Thursday with periods of precipitation lasting all the way into Saturday. The signature for a strong wind event about mid week is weaker this morning due to the fact the low is expected to remain further off shore. We’ll keep the chance of gusty, southerly winds in the forecast, mainly for Wednesday and Thursday and see how future modeling behaves. The second system we’ve been discussing looks much weaker this morning and it may not arrive until the 21st or 22nd.
Forecast Mostly clear today. Variable cloudiness tonight into Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday and Monday night. Mostly cloudy Tuesday. A slight chance of rain Tuesday night with an increasing risk of precipitation Wednesday. Rain likely at times Wednesday night and Thursday.
Temperatures
| Madera 69/38/68/36/70 | Reedley 70/38/68/37/70 | Dinuba 69/39/68/36/69 |
| Porterville 70/38/68/36/71 | Lindsay 69/38/68/35/71 | Delano 70/39/69/37/70 |
| Bakersfield 71/44/68/40/71 | Taft 65/46/63/45/67 | Arvin 71/40/68/37/71 |
| Lamont 70/41/69/39/71 | Pixley 69/40/68/38/70 | Tulare 68/37/68/35/69 |
| Woodlake 69/39/68/36/70 | Hanford 69/40/68/36/71 | Orosi 68/38/68/36/70 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Mostly clear 38/71 | Monday Mostly clear 39/75 | Tuesday Partly cloudy 41/75 | Wednesday Chance of rain 43/74 | Thursday Rain likely 50/69 |
Two Week Outlook: November 15 through November 21 This model continues to show an active pattern for central California with the likelihood of precipitation. a major winter storm may come on shore between the 15 and the 18. Temperatures are expected to be below average.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds will be at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Monday night. We are still watching latest modeling for the risk of strong winds in the south valley and along the west side. Models this morning show the surface low remaining off shore until later in the week and the pressure gradient between the interior and off shore isn’t quite as strong this morning. Still, the risk of strong, gusty winds, especially near the base of the Kern County mountains and along the west side is there for Wednesday through Thursday. Trying to forecast these winds is always an interesting proposition, but we will continue to keep that risk in the forecast and see what future modeling shows.
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday. Still, there is a chance of ran for Wednesday with rain becoming likely Thursday and continuing on and off through Saturday as this is a slow moving system. This storm may have a subtropical connection which may lead to heavy precipitation along the Sierra and its foothills. Also, a strong rain shadow will no doubt develop along the west side and in Kern County. Models which had depicted a second system about a week from Sunday push that likelihood back to a week from Tuesday.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. Coldest readings this morning came in at about 33 to 34 degrees. Most locations tonight will be from 1 to 4 degrees milder due to cloud cover. Coldest locations Saturday and Sunday mornings will dip down to 33 to 35 degrees. Most locations will range in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Lows will be above freezing all of next week due to increasingly active weather. A colder will take shape after around the 22 as a northwesterly flow is showing up on models. Since this is the first model run to show this change, we’ll just watch and study for any trends.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .73, Parlier, .67, Arvin .71, Delano .69.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 61, Arvin 64, Delano 61 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/44, Record Temperatures: 85/33
Heating Degree Days Season. 84 -64 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .09, Monthly .09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 60.8 +3.4 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 23 Arvin, 19 Belridge, 15 Shafter, 20 Stratford, 19 Delano 19, Porterville, NA. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:32. Sunset, 4:53. hours of daylight, 10:24
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 68 / 40 / T /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 68 / 41 / 0.01 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.26 26 1.23 123 1.00 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.52 68 1.15 149 0.77 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.51 57 0.95 106 0.90 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.23 37 0.50 79 0.63 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 12 0.65 84 0.77 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.01 2 0.59 97 0.61 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.31 77 0.53 133 0.40 6.36
BISHOP T 0.18 43 0.46 110 0.42 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 14 0.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 26 1.40 163 0.86 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.94 119 0.79 13.32
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Next report: November 9/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.