November 10, 2023
Summary Most locations have settled into the mid to upper 30s this morning. The coldest I could find was 34 at both Fowler and Sanger. The backside of a weak trough of low pressure will move through this morning with a continuation of variable amounts of mid and high level clouds, breaking into most clear skies later in the day. A ridge of upper level high pressure is currently just off shore and will build in from the west this afternoon through Sunday night for a mostly clear and milder weekend. Models continue to have various solutions on exactly what can be expected from a storm system next week. the GFS model, which yesterday afternoon showed a drier forecast, looks a bit better this morning but not much. However blended model information is considerably more bullish. Most models show dry weather through Tuesday night, the blended model indicates there’s a 38% chance of rain Wednesday evening. That chance moves up to 78% Thursday and 72% Friday. Potential rainfall amounts also vary a great deal, ranging from less than .10 on the GFS model to more than one inch on the blended model. Dry weather will return next Saturday and will continue into the early part of the following week. for the second model run in a row, there are indications that cold weather could make an appearance beginning the 22. A large high off the Pacific coast is projected to move into the Gulf of Alaska while a semi arctic low builds into western Canada, dropping into the western US and creating a northerly flow aloft. We will continue to watch this in the coming days.
Forecast Partly cloudy for a time this morning. Mostly clear this afternoon through Monday night. Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of rain Wednesday night. Rain likely Thursday through Friday night.
Temperatures
| Madera 67/37/69/36/73 | Reedley 68/37/69/37/74 | Dinuba 66/35/69/36/73 |
| Porterville 68/37/70/38/74 | Lindsay 68/36/70/36/74 | Delano 69/37/70/38/75 |
| Bakersfield 69/42/71/44/77 | Taft 66/47/68/48/75 | Arvin 69/39/70/41/75 |
| Lamont 69/40/71/41/75 | Pixley’ 68/37/70/38/74 | Tulare 67/35/69/37/73 |
| Woodlake 67/36/69/38/73 | Hanford 67/37/69/38/73 | Orosi 67/35/69/36/73 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Mostly clear 42/75 | Tuesday Mostly clear 42/73 | Wednesday PM rain possible 48/73 | Thursday Rain likely 48/68 | Friday Rain likely 45/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23 This model continues to show an active pattern for central California with the likelihood of precipitation. a major winter storm may come on shore between the 15 and the 18. Temperatures are expected to be below average.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds will be at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
The chance of strong winds in the south valley and, to a lesser extent, the west side, remains fairly low this morning but cannot be completely eliminated for Wednesday through Thursday. There are too many model solutions to try to nail down percentages at this time. One model shows the system remaining too far off shore to have an impact while others show enough difference in pressure between the coast and the interior for some strong, gusty winds. For now, it’s best to keep this in the low chance category until there’s enough similarities between modeling info to nail this down.
Rain Discussion. There continues to be a considerable amount of modeling differences between both timing and potential rainfall for next week. the GFS model continues to be the weakest with just light showers projected for next Thursday and Friday. However, blended model information is showing an earlier rain arrival with the likelihood of rain at times Thursday and Friday. Quantitative precipitation estimates are also quite out of focus with estimates ranging from .10 or less to possibly more than one inch. We’ll keep a risk of rain in the forecast for Wednesday and go with the likelihood of rain Thursday and Friday. Dry weather will continue next weekend and into the coming week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and will remain above freezing through next week. we may begin to see some cold weather beginning around the 22nd. Some models suggest a large high will build off shore with a ridge extending northward into the Gulf of Alaska while a cold low dives due south from western Canada due south into the western US, this would set up a pipeline of cold air running from north to south into California for potentially below freezing nights. For now, we’re just playing the possibilities as that’s all they are, but watch in the coming days as this will no doubt go back and forth in the coming days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .72, Parlier, .65, Arvin .68, Delano .67.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 61, Arvin 64, Delano 61 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44, Record Temperatures: 83/35
Heating Degree Days Season. 95 -63 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .09, Monthly .09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 60.0 +2.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 23 Arvin, 19 Belridge, 15 Shafter, 20 Stratford, 19 Delano 19, Porterville, NA. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:33. Sunset, 4:53. hours of daylight, 10:22
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 69 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 67 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.26 25 1.24 119 1.04 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.52 65 1.19 149 0.80 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.51 54 0.99 105 0.94 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.23 35 0.50 76 0.66 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 11 0.66 83 0.80 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.01 2 0.59 94 0.63 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.31 76 0.66 161 0.41 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 42 0.46 107 0.43 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 0.02 14 0.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 24 1.46 162 0.90 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.99 121 0.82 13.32
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Next report: November 10/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.