November 13, 2023
Summary: A large area of intensifying low pressure is located roughly 800 miles west of the northern California coast. This is the same storm we’ve been talking about for the past week. models continue to vary on the placement of this system. The GFS model continues to track it further off shore and keeps precipitation off shore through Thursday night. From there, the low is projected to weaken as it moves through southern California Saturday. Other models place this system 400-500 miles off the central coast by Wednesday evening. In that position, bands of rain will pivot inland over central California from the south west, resulting in a good 72 hours of on and off precipitation. the six day quantitative precipitation guide indicates anywhere from one inch to an inch and a half is possible north of Kern County from Wednesday through Saturday while the GFS model is showing less than one-half inch, even in the wet spots. At any rate, it does appear the low will weaken and move inland Saturday as a large ridge of upper level high pressure shifts over the west. Dry weather can be expected from then until at least the middle of next week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. A slight chance of rain Wednesday with an increasing chance of rain Wednesday night. A chance of rain at any time from Thursday through Friday night. Showers likely Friday night with a chance of showers Saturday. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Temperatures
| Madera 76/42/75/43/73 | Reedley 76/41/75/42/74 | Dinuba 74/40/75/42/73 |
| Porterville 77/41/75/42/73 | Lindsay 75/40/74/42/74 | Delano 78/43/75/43/74 |
| Bakersfield 78/46/78/48/76 | Taft 73/51/72/52/70 | Arvin 79/43/78/43/76 |
| Lamont 78/44/74/44/73 | Pixley 76/40/74/42/73 | Tulare 74/40/74/43/73 |
| Woodlake 75/40/75/42/73 | Hanford 75/40/74/40/72 | Orosi 74/39/73/41/72 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Chance of rain 46/72 | Friday Rain likely 51/72 | Saturday Showers likely 51/69 | Sunday Partly cloudy 48/67 | Monday Mostly clear 40/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 20 through November 26 This model indicates temperatures will fall to below average during this period. There is a slightly better than even chance that precipitation will be above average.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday night. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 12 mph. There’s a chance of locally gusty east to southeast winds in Kern County Wednesday and Thursday. Gusts to 35 mph are possible near the base of the Tehachapis and locally elsewhere.
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday night. There will be a chance of rain Wednesday, mainly Wednesday night. There will be a chance of rain on and off Thursday through Friday night. The risk of showers wlll continue Saturday. Precipitation should be over by Saturday night with dry weather for several days thereafter.
Rainfall amounts north of Kern County along the east side could potentially measure up to an inch or so. Along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties, generally a quarter to a half inch with a quarter to a third of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through the following week. currently, there’s nothing on models to suggest a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .67, Parlier, .61, Arvin .64, Delano .62.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 60, Arvin 62, Delano 60 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43, Record Temperatures: 83/28
Heating Degree Days Season. 123 -66 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .09, Monthly .09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 58.9 +2.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 40 Arvin, 32 Belridge, 29 Shafter, 32 Stratford, 35 Delano 32, Porterville, NA. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:36. Sunset, 4:50. hours of daylight, 10:16
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 77 / 45 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 78 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 81 / 55 / 0.00 /
\VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 77 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
S
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.26 22 1.24 107 1.16 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.52 58 1.19 134 0.89 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.51 50 0.99 96 1.03 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.23 31 0.50 68 0.74 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 10 0.66 75 0.88 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.01 1 0.59 87 0.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.31 67 0.66 143 0.46 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 39 0.46 100 0.46 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 0.02 13 0.15 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 22 1.46 146 1.00 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 T 0 0.71 83 0.86 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.99 108 0.92 13.32
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Next report: November 13/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.