November 14, 2023
Summary: A cut off low is now located about 400 miles west of the Golden Gate. This will be a difficult storm to forecast as the parent low will remain off shore until Friday. Most models this morning depict a swath of moisture moving from south to north across central California later Wednesday and Wednesday night with a possible dry slot Thursday. A second, even more wet, band of energy is expected Thursday night into Friday night and possibly even Saturday. The low will finally begin to track inland and become a trough of low pressure Friday night and Saturday. For the first part of this event, snow levels in the Sierra will be high. The balloon sounding above Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of 9,400 feet. That would put the snow level for the first portion of the storm at between 8,500 and 8,000 feet, lowering to 6,000 to 7,000 feet late Friday and Saturday. Models show a large ridge of upper level high pressure building eastward into California with a ridge extending northward into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. That would keep the pattern dry from Sunday through a week from Thursday.
Forecast: Mostly clear through midday. Increasing cloudiness late today and tonight. Mostly cloudy Wednesday morning with a chance of rain by noon. Rain becoming likely at times Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Variable cloudiness Thursday with a chance of showers by late afternoon. A chance of rain Thursday night. Rain becoming likely at times Friday through Saturday with a chance of showers Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday. Becoming mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog.
Temperatures
| Madera 73/45/70/50/72 | Reedley 75/46/70/49/72 | Dinuba 73/44/71/48/71 |
| Porterville 75/46/72/49/72 | Lindsay 75ele/45/72/49/71 | Delano 74/45/73/49/73 |
| Bakersfield 76/48/73/51/75 | Taft 71/53/70/54/69 | Arvin 75/46/72/50/72 |
| Lamont 76/47/72/51/72 | Pixley 74/43/71/46/72 | Tulare 72/43/71/48/71 |
| Woodlake 72/43/71/47/71 | Hanford 73/44/70/49/72 | Orosi 73/42/71/47/70 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Rain likely 49/74 | Saturday Showers likely 57/70 | Sunday Partly cloudy 50/66 | Monday Mostly clear 41/68 | Tuesday Mostly clear 41/70 |
Two Week Outlook: November 21 through November 27 This model indicates temperatures will fall to below average during this period. There is a slightly better than even chance that precipitation will be above average.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds will generally be out of the southeast at around 5 to 8 mph through tonight. Winds Wednesday north of Kern County will be generally out of the south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. In Kern County, winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with gusts to 30 mph possible locally stronger gusts are possible near the base of the Kern County mountains. Winds Thursday through Friday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Rain Discussion. Rain has spread as far south as the north bay counties, as of the time of this writing. Models show a slug of energy moving from south to north across the valley tonight. The rain should taper off for a time Thursday then another band of energy will move on shore late Thursday night with precipitation becoming likely at times Thursday night through Saturday. A chance of showers will continue Saturday night, ending wth dry weather returning Sunday and lasting until at least Thursday of next week. rainfall from Wednesday through Saturday night should range between one half and one inch on the east side north of Kern County. Along the western side of Merced County southward into Kings County, a quarter to a third of an inch is possible. Rainfall amounts for the valley portion of Kern County should be at or less than a third of an inch.
Rainfall amounts north of Kern County along the east side could potentially measure up to an inch or so. Along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties, generally a quarter to a half inch with a quarter to a third of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through the following week. currently, there’s nothing on models to suggest a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .64, Parlier, .61, Arvin .69, Delano .61.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 60, Arvin 62, Delano 59
Average Temperatures: 65/43, Record Temperatures: 79/30
Heating Degree Days Season. 127 -73 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .09, Monthly .09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 59.0 +2.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 40 Arvin, 32 Belridge, 29 Shafter, 32 Stratford, 35 Delano 32. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:37. Sunset, 4:50. hours of daylight, 10:15
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 78 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 76 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 77 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 77 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 77 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 79 / 41 / 0.00 /
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.26 22 1.24 103 1.20 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.52 57 1.19 129 0.92 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.51 48 0.99 93 1.06 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.23 30 0.50 65 0.77 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 10 0.66 73 0.91 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.01 1 0.59 84 0.70 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 0.31 65 0.66 138 0.48 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 38 0.46 98 0.47 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 0.02 13 0.16 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 21 1.46 140 1.04 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 T 0 0.71 81 0.88 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.99 103 0.96 13.32
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Next report: November 14/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.