November 15, 2023
Summary: A rather fragmented low is located about 500 miles west of the central coast at this hour. There are several areas of precipitation rotating counter clockwise around a cut off low. Previous models showed one of these areas moving over central California later today. However, so far it looks like all of the areas will remain off shore. The cat and mouse game with precipitation will continue through the first half of the weekend. The most likely time for precipitation will be Friday and Friday night as the off shore storm makes its way across California. Precipitation could very well continue into Sunday morning due to the slow progression of the storm. Cut off lows are notoriously difficult to forecast and this one is no exception. Currently, I feel it best to forecast a chance of rain at any time from this morning to Saturday night. Sunday will be a transition day as the cut off low morphs into a trough of low pressure, entering the Great Basin Sunday. A large upper high will build along the west coast early next week with a ridge extending northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Canada. This will ensure dry weather for most of next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain this morning. Expect a higher risk this afternoon through Thursday night. Rain becoming likely at times Friday into Saturday night. rain ending by late Saturday night, becoming mostly to partly cloudy Sunday into Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Wednesday with night and morning fog and low clouds.
Temperatures
| Madera 69/47/72/47/71 | Reedley 71/47/72/48/70 | Dinuba 69/48/72/47/71 |
| Porterville 73/48/72/43/71 | Lindsay 71//48/72/47/70 | Delano 73/49/72/48/70 |
| Bakersfield 76/52/74/52/75 | Taft 72/54/69/54/68 | Arvin 75/50/75/52/74 |
| Lamont 74/51/72/55/75 | Pixley 70/48/72/47/71 | Tulare 69/48/71/48/70 |
| Woodlake 69/49/71/48/70 | Hanford 69/46/72/46/71 | Orosi 68/48/71/48/70 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Rain likely 53/71 | Sunday Partly cloudy 43/67 | Monday Mostly clear 41/65 | Tuesday Mostly clear 40/69 | Wednesday Mostly clear 40/70 |
Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 28 This model shows a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure over the western one third of the US. This favors above average temperatures during this time frame along with dry conditions.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph north of Kern County. It’s possible some gusty downslope winds may make it off the slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and onto the valley floor, mainly today and tonight. If this does occur, we should see east to southeast winds of 15 to 30 mph near the base of the mountains with gusts to 45 mph possible. I would give this a 30%. For the period Thursday through Saturday, expect winds out of the east or southeast at 5 to 12 mph with stronger gusts.
It’s necessary for us to be out of the office this afternoon. Reports will resume November 16.
Rain Discussion. So far, just about all the precipitation has remained off shore. Satellite imagery shows an enhanced area of precipitation off the central and northern California coasts. As the day wears on, this area of rain will grow close so we’ll keep a chance of rain in the forecast for this afternoon through the nighttime hours tonight. Expect a chance of rain at any given time from today all the way through Saturday night. dry weather will begin Sunday and continue through at least the middle of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through the following week. currently, there’s nothing on models to suggest a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .62, Parlier, .59, Arvin .73, Delano .62.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 60, Arvin 61, Delano 59
Average Temperatures: 65/43, Record Temperatures: 79/30
Heating Degree Days Season. 135 -76 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .09, Monthly .09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 58.9 +2.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 73 Arvin, 61 Belridge, 60 Shafter, 60 Stratford, 70 Delano 60. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:38. Sunset, 4:49. hours of daylight, 10:13
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 77 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 77 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 76 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 77 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 79 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 76 / 44 / 0.00 /
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.26 21 1.24 100 1.24 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.52 55 1.19 125 0.95 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.51 47 0.99 91 1.09 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.23 29 0.50 63 0.80 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 10 0.66 70 0.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.01 1 0.59 82 0.72 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.31 63 0.66 135 0.49 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 38 0.46 96 0.48 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 0.02 13 0.16 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 20 1.46 135 1.08 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 T 0 0.71 78 0.91 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.99 99 1.00 13.32
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Next report: November 16/am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.