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November 16, 2023 afternoon report

November 16, 2023

Summary:  A cut off low continues to spin off the central California coast this afternoon. The center of circulation is roughly 300 mils to the west of Monterey. Satellite imagery is depicting a rather fragmented pattern out there. The low will finally begin to make its move towards the coast Friday. As it does, the chance for precipitation will again increase. There will continue to be a risk of showers through Friday morning. models indicate a fairly substantial batch of moisture rotating around the western side of the low just as it moves inland, giving the valley a pretty decent chance of precipitation Friday night through Saturday. By then, the low will have opened up into a trough of low pressure as the backside of the low finally scoots into the Great Basin, ending the chance of rain later Saturday night. Sunday will be dry with no doubt plenty of residual cloud cover, especially in Kern County where the usual upslope conditions will prevail along the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. High pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere will take over Monday and will continue through Thursday of next week. a weak trough of low pressure will move through the west Thursday night and Friday. However, most of what energy there will be will simply move into the Great Bassin with little impact on the weather for central California.

Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Friday morning with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rain becoming likely by late Friday afternoon and continuing on and off through Saturday. The chance of showers will diminish by Saturday night. partly to mostly cloudy Sunday through Monday morning. mostly clear Monday afternoon through Thursday afternoon with areas of night and morning valley fog.

Short Term:                                                                                           

Madera 46/73/51/68Reedley 45/74/51/68Dinuba 44/72/51/67 
Porterville 45/73/53/69Lindsay 44/74/52/67Delano 50/74/53/69 
Bakersfield 53/75/57/70Taft 55/73/57/68Arvin 50/74//54/69 
Lamont 49/75/54/68Pixley 46/74/52/78Tulare 45/73/52/68 
Woodlake 44/74/52/67Hanford 47/73/53/69Orosi 44/73//51/68

Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph through tonight. Local gusts to 25 mph will be possible Friday. Winds Friday night through Saturday will increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. Winds Sunday through Sunday evening will be out of the northwest with gusts to 20 mph possible, diminishing Sunday evening

Rain: The chance for scattered showers will continue today through Friday with even an outside chance of a few isolated thunderstorms. The main moisture surge will arrive Friday night, continuing through Saturday. Rain will taper off Saturday night with dry weather beginning Sunday.. models show a blocking ridge of high pressure that will keep conditions dry Monday through Friday of next week. even the two week model is suggesting drier than usual weather through the end of the month.

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the next seven days.

Next report: November 17/morning