November 18, 2023
Summary: Finally, the off shore low has been kicked eastward by another trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest. Doppler radar was depicting mainly light showers over the valley, generally over Merced County. Another batch of light showers is getting ready to dump into Kings County. The trough will continue to move slowly eastward today. High resolution models are indicating an uptick in shower activity during the late morning and afternoon hours. The severe storm center in Oklahoma has us under a slight risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Any thunderstorms would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and hail. The back side of the trough will slide east of the Sierra Nevada by tonight. Showers may linger into Kern County into Sunday morning. upper level high pressure will move in behind the system Sunday and Monday and will ridge northward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. This will set up a brief, dry northerly flow above California, injecting a cooler air mass down the valley. Coldest locations beginning Monday morning will brush with the 32 degree mark. As the high takes over, and a warm air inversion develops above the valley floor, pockets of fog and low clouds will form during the late night and early morning hours. The next trough of low pressure will arrive Thursday into early Friday. This is a very weak system, however it is possible light showers could spread as far south as Merced County. for now, though, we’ll forecast a continuation of dry weather. After Thursday, dry weather will continue through the weekend and more than likely through the following week.
Forecast: Widely scattered showers this morning. periods of showers this afternoon and evenng with a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight, ending by dawn with the exception of Kern County. A chance of light showers for a time Sunday morning in Kern County. Otherwise mostly to partly cloudy Sunday morning. mostly clear Monday with the exception of Kern and Tulare Counties which will remain mostly to partly cloudy through midday. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Wednesday night with patchy night and morning fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night with a chance of light showers near Merced, dry everywhere else. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Saturday.
Temperatures
| Madera 70/46/61/36/64 | Reedley 69/45/62/37/62 | Dinuba 68/45/63/35/63 |
| Porterville 71/48/62//37/63 | Lindsay 69/45/61/35/64 | Delano 70/47/61/37/64 |
| Bakersfield 71/55/62/41/65 | Taft 69/53/61/43/63 | Arvin 71//49/61/41/64 |
| Lamont 72/50/61/39/64 | Pixley 71/46/63/36/65 | Tulare 68/45/61/34/62 |
| Woodlake 68/47/63/36/62 | Hanford 69//47/62/37/62 | Orosi 69/45/62/34/63 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 36/65 | Wednesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 38/70 | Thursday Variable clouds 36/68 | Friday Partly cloudy 38/67 | Saturday Partly cloudy 39/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 28 This model shows a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure over the western one third of the US. This favors above average temperatures during this time frame along with dry conditions.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph near showers. Winds late tonight and Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph, diminishing Sunday evening. Winds Sunday night through Monday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. Periods of showers will continue for the remainder of the day and into the late evening hours. Models show an uptick in the activity from the late morning hours through the early evening. Showers will end after midnight with the exception of Kern County where showers may last until the early morning hours Sunday. Dry weather will return to all areas by midday Sunday and continue through at least Wednesday night. a weak trough of low pressure will move through Thursday and Thursday night. it’s possible a few sprinkles or light showers could make it as far south as Merced County, but the rest of the growing area will remain dry. Expect dry weather Friday through next weekend.
Frost Discussion: A seasonably chilly air mass will move southward into California beginning Sunday. By Monday morning, after skies clear, widespread low to mid 40s can be expected. River bottom and other low lying frost pocket could make it down into the low to mid 30s each day through Thursday. Cloud cover may move in by Thursday morning, maintaining above freezing conditions with above freezing conditions continuing for the remainder of the week. still nothing on models suggesting a pattern that would be conducive for below freezing conditions at this time.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .54, Parlier, .55, Arvin .82, Delano .58.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Arvin 61, Delano 58
Average Temperatures: 64/42, Record Temperatures: 80/27
Heating Degree Days Season. 150 -97 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .11, Monthly .11
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 59.0 +3.4 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 88 Arvin, 68 Belridge, 71 Shafter, 66 Stratford, 85 Delano 72. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:41. Sunset, 4:47 hours of daylight, 10:08
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 72 / 60 / 0.02 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 76 / M / M /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 75 / 58 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 75 / 53 / 0.05 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 75 / 55 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 79 / 60 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 75 / 52 / 0.03 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 76 / 51 / T /
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON T 0.34 25 1.24 90 1.38 13.45
MODESTO T 0.54 51 1.19 113 1.05 12.27
MERCED 0.02 0.54 45 0.99 83 1.19 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.27 30 0.50 56 0.89 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.11 11 0.66 65 1.02 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.02 3 0.59 75 0.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 0.31 57 0.66 122 0.54 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 49 0.46 90 0.51 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 6 0.02 12 0.17 2.20
SALINAS T 0.22 18 1.46 122 1.20 12.58
PASO ROBLES T T 0 0.71 72 0.99 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.07 0.07 6 0.99 89 1.11 13.32
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Next report: November 18/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.