November 23, 2023
Summary: A weak trough of low pressure moved through overnight and early this morning and was marked with variable cloudiness but little else. Skies have cleared over most of the district. Our typical late fall/early winter haze is quite evident this morning as visibilities are running just 3 to 5 miles throughout the valley. Over the next 48 hours, a low pressure system will develop over Nevada and Utah. The only active weather for California will be over the high Sierra where a chance of snow flurries exists from later tonight through Friday. The freezing level is still quite high after the trough passage and is now 10,500 feet. This means only the highest elevations have a chance of snow flurries. That low over the Great Basin will turn the winds aloft out of the north/northeast which will transfer a cooler air mass over California over the next 72 hours. Our first real frost event will occur this weekend and into next week. not only is this air mass a bit cooler, it’s also drier and this will allow for stronger radiational cooling. Beginning Saturday morning, overnight low temperatures outside the urban areas will chill down to 29 to 33 in most flatland locations and down to 26 to 28 in low lying terrain. Even with the cold overnight low temperatures, daytime highs will climb into the low to mid 60s under clear but hazy skies. Beginning late Sunday through Wednesday, a large upper high will be anchored over and off the west coast, trapping a dry air mass on the valley floor. strong radiational cooling will occur each night through at least the middle of next week with lows in the 29 to 34 degree range and highs in the low to mid 60s. Medium range models continue to show a winter storm moving in from off the northern California coast by next Friday. This will give us our next shot at precipitation as most models show it moving across the southern half of California by next weekend.
Forecast: Other than patchy morning fog and hazy conditions, it will be mostly clear through next Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/62/33/62 | Reedley 36/61/32/63 | Dinuba 34/61/32/62 |
| Porterville 35/62/35/63 | Lindsay 34/61/32/62 | Delano /63/34/63 |
| Bakersfield 39/64/36/64 | Taft 43/62/41/61 | Arvin 37/63/35/62 |
| Lamont 38/63/34/63 | Pixley 35/62/33/62 | Tulare 35/62/32/62 |
| Woodlake 35/61/32/62 | Hanford 37/63/34/62 | Orosi 35/61/33/61 |
Winds: Winds through Sunday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through December 2. Models are still portraying a rather robust low pressure system off the northern California coast December 2. It’s then projected to slide southward parallel to the California coast, spreading precipitation over central California. The low will move through southern California next weekend. Theoretically, this would result in 72 hours of unsettled weather from December 3 through the 6. The two week model also shows a pattern favorable for above average rainfall.
Frost: A low pressure system will center over Nevada and Utah over the next 72 hours, turning the winds from a north/northeast direction. This will spread a cooler and drier air mass over central California, leading to our first good frost event beginning Saturday morning. beginning Saturday morning, most flatland locations will chill into the 29 to 34 degree range with coldest frost pockets potentially down to 26 to 28 in unprotected locations. Hillsides will remain generally above freezing. Expect this scenario to play itself out each night through Thursday.
Next report: November 24/morning