November 25, 2023 report

November 25, 2023                                                                  

Summary:   This morning marked the first general frost of the winter season. Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s are predominant throughout the citrus belt. A dry northerly flow continues to wrap around an upper low centered over the Colorado/Utah border. Off shore, a large  ridge along the Pacific coast bulges north/northeast into British Columbia. That high will nudge the low pressure system further east, allowing the off shore high to build inland. This will effectively lock the cool, dry air mass onto the valley floor with relatively cool dew points and a cool dry air mass. The result will be a continuation of subfreezing mornings through Tuesday but possibly Wednesday. For Wednesday and beyond, models are just having a horrible time coming up with a definitive pattern. models range from completely dry to a chance of light showers. A low pressure system may be off the central coast by Wednesday, moving across southern California Wednesday night and Thursday.  Others maintain a blocking ridge for dry weather. I’ve come to the realization that a slight chance of showers exists for any day from Wednesday through Saturday even though there’s a reasonably decent chance of dry weather through the period. The two week model continues to show moisture moving into California. However, longer range models as of late have done a relatively poor job.

Forecast:  Mostly clear skies through Sunday with patchy late night and early morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. mostly clear Tuesday and Tuesday night. variable cloudiness at times Wednesday through Saturday.

Temperatures                            

Madera 62/30/62/32/64	Reedley 63/29/61/29/63	Dinuba 61/28/62/30/63
Porterville 63/29/64/30/65	Lindsay 61/29/62/30/63	Delano 63/30/63/31/64
Bakersfield 64/35/64/37/66	Taft 60/42/61/42/62	Arvin 63/31/63/32/64
Lamont 64/31/64/32/65	Pixley 62/29/62/30/63	Tulare 61/28/62/30/64
Woodlake 62/29//62/31/63	Hanford 63//31/63/31/65	Orosi 61/28/62/30/63

Seven Day Forecast

Tuesday Mostly clear 32/65

Wednesday Slight chance of showers 37/66

Thursday Slight chance of showers 37/62

Friday Slight chance of showers 37/60

Saturday Slight chance of showers 37/61

Two Week Outlook:  December 2 through December 8   This model indicates the return of a wet pattern to central California. A broad trough of low pressure will cover the eastern Pacific with the possibility of two winter storms affecting the region. Temperatures should run marginally above average.   

November:  This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.  

November, December, January:  This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.

Wind Discussion:  Winds through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

Rain Discussion.  It’s been a while since I’ve seen models have such a difficult time nailing down a specific weather pattern for a period of time. However, for the period of Wednesday through Saturday of next week, models range from dry weather to a chance of showers. The best course of action is to place a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Wednesday through Saturday. The two week model still holds onto the idea of periodic wet weather, however this model has not done a stellar job recently.

Frost Discussion: Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s are widespread out there this morning. sanger, Ivanhoe, Porterville, and Lindsay have each dropped to 29 as of 6:00am while Fowler and Exter were reporting 28. Most other locations were between 30 and 33. Expect similar conditions Sunday morning with perhaps one more degree of cooling. Upper level high pressure will build in from the west over the next two days which will lock in the current air mass. Upper 20s to lower 30s can be expected to Tuesday morning. I hedge a bit for Monday morning, however as models show a weaker upper air feature moving in which could produce enough cloud cover to slow the radiational cooling process. For now, though, I’m not betting on it. Coldest river bottom and other cold spots will chill down to 26 to 28 degrees tonight with most flat terrain ranging between 29 and 32 with hillsides remaining above freezing. Tonight’s inversion should be decent with temperatures at 34 feet anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. The pattern for Wednesday through next weekend is very unclear at this time. Some models show a weak Pacific storm moving through about Wednesday with possibly more activity later in the week. this, of course, would keep temperatures up. Other models though keep this activity too far offshore. If this is the case, subfreezing models will continue.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella 29	Porterville 28	Ivanhoe 27	Woodlake 29
Strathmore 28	McFarland 27	Ducor 30	Tea Pot Dome 28
Lindsay 28	Exeter 27	Famoso 29	Madera 30
Belridge 27	Delano 29	North Bakersfield 30	Orosi 28
Orange Cove 28	Lindcove 27	Lindcove Hillside af	Sanger River Bottom 26
Root creek 28	Venice Hill 29	Rosedale 30	Jasmine 29
Arvin 31	Lamont 31	Plainview 29	Mettler 30
Edison 31	Maricopa 32	Holland Creek 31	Tivy Valley 28
Kite Road South 31	Kite Road North 28

AF=Above Freezing