November 28, 2023
Summary: Upper level high pressure stretches from Arizona to Washington state while a weak upper low is located roughly 500 miles to the west/northwest of the Golden Gate. The low will slide southeastward, just brushing the central coast then into southern California and the desert southwest by Thursday. High resolution models this morning show this system to be weaker than previous model runs, therefore we will remove the slight chance of showers for Wednesday. The next system upstream is currently in the Gulf of Alaska and will move southeastward into the Pacific Northwest Friday with only the trailing portion moving through California. We’ll continue to go with a slight chance of showers for Thursday night and Friday, however this looks to be a dry event as well. It will, however, move a somewhat cooler air mass into the region, lowering high temperatures into the 50s Friday and Saturday, which is average for late November. Upper level high pressure will center over the coast this weekend and into the middle of next week. this will maintain dry weather until about Thursday of next week when a weak trough will move through. For now we’ll go with a dry forecast until next Friday as a zone of upper level high pressure will continue to be anchored off shore, keeping the storm track into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through tonight with patchy late night fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursdays with patchy late night fog. A slight chance of a few light showers Thursday night and Friday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Tuesday with patchy late night and early morning fog.
Temperatures
| Madera 66/30/62/30/59 | Reedley 67/31/60/30/60 | Dinuba 64/29/60/30/59 |
| Porterville 67/31/61/29/61 | Lindsay 66/29/61/31/60 | Delano 67/31/60/30/61 |
| Bakersfield 67/39/62/41/61 | Taft 64/41/58/43/57 | Arvin 68/33/62/34/61 |
| Lamont 67/34/62/33/61 | Pixley 67/31/63/32/61 | Tulare 65/30/62/31/60 |
| Woodlake 66/31/62/30/60 | Hanford’ 66/31/61/30/60 | Orosi 65/30/61/31/59 |
Seven Dayc Forecast
| Friday Slight chance of showers 34/60 | Saturday Partly cloudy 31/58 | Sunday Partly cloudy 31/59 | Monday Mostly clear 31/62 | Tuesday Mostly clear 34/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 5 through December11 Temperatures during this time frame will be somewhat above average. Northern California should receive above average rainfall, however central and southern California will see below average precipitation,
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. It now appears the only chance of measurable rain this week will be on Thursday night through Friday morning and even then the chance is minimal. After Friday morning the storm track will migrate into the Pacific Northwest and the northern quarter of California. For now it appears dry weather will continue through at least Thursday of next week.
Low Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 31 | Porterville 39 | Ivanhoe 28 | Woodlake 29 |
| Strathmore 31 | McFarland 30 | Ducor 31 | Tea Pot Dome 30 |
| Lindsay 29 | Exeter 29 | Famoso 30 | Madera 30 |
| Belridge 29 | Delano 31 | North Bakersfield 32 | Orosi 29 |
| Orange Cove 31 | Lindcove 29 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger River Bottom 28 |
| Root creek 29 | Venice Hill 30 | Rosedale 33 | Jasmine 32 |
| Arvin 34 | Lamont 34 | Plainview 30 | Mettler 33 |
| Edison 34 | Maricopa 31 | Holland Creek 33 | Tivy Valley 30 |
| Kite Road South 33 | Kite Road North 30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .54, Parlier, .49, Arvin .58, Delano .48.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 56, Arvin 58, Delano 54
Average Temperatures: 60/39, Record Temperatures: 76/28
Heating Degree Days Season. 284 -108 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .21
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 56.2 +2.5 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 163 Arvin, 133 Belridge, 137 Shafter, 144 Stratford, 149 Delano 138. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:51. Sunset, 4:43 hours of daylight, 9:54
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
/
0MCE : Merced AP 153 : 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 37 / 0.00
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.64 34 1.24 65 1.90 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.95 65 1.19 82 1.46 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.00 65 0.99 64 1.54 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 35 0.50 40 1.24 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 16 0.66 50 1.32 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 13 0.59 59 1.00 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 44 0.66 92 0.72 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 40 0.46 74 0.62 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 5 0.02 10 0.21 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 13 1.46 87 1.68 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.74 133 0.71 54 1.31 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.33 22 0.99 65 1.52 13.32
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Next report: November 28/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.