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November 30, 2023 report

November 30, 2023                                                                  

Summary:   A fast moving trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska will move through the valley later this afternoon and this evening. This system is very weak but will be accompanied by variable clouds and an outside chance of sprinkles or light showers. As barometric pressure rises off shore and dips over the interior, winds will begin to pick up with breezy conditions, especially along the west side, tonight and Friday. A marginally cooler air mass will overspread the region with highs dropping into the upper 50s by Friday. Lows tonight will be mostly above freezing due to wind conditions and cloud cover. A zonal flow will set up over the weekend. This fast, west to east flow into the Pacific Northwest will mean significant rain for the northwest and northwest California. Dry weather will prevail for central and southern  California due to a ridge of high pressure stretching from the eastern Pacific over California. In fact, models maintain a dry forecast not just for the weekend but into next week and possibly even the following week as the high builds even farther north.

Forecast:  Variable cloudiness today and tonight. A slight chance of showers this afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy Friday morning. becoming mostly clear in the afternoon with the exception of Kern and Tulare Counties which will remain mostly to partly cloudy into Saturday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon on through Thursday of next week.   

Temperatures                            

Madera 60/37/58/31/6035Reedley 62/35/58/31/59Dinuba 60/37/59/31/59
Porterville 62/36/58/31/69Lindsay 61/35/58/30/58Delano 62/38/59/32/59
Bakersfield 62/43/57/38/60Taft] 57/44/53/41/55Arvin 63/38/57/34/60
Lamont 61/40/57/34/59Pixley 62/37/58/31/59Tulare 61/36/58/30/58
Woodlake 61/35/30/58Hanford 62/37/59/30.//58Orosi 60/35/59/31/59

Seven Day Forecast

Sunday ] Mostly clear 32/62                           Monday Mostly clear 32/63Tuesday Mostly clear 32/64Wednesday Mostly clear 34/66Thursday Mostly clear 35/68

Two Week Outlook:  December 7 through December13  This model shows above average precipitation for northern California with the southern 2/3 of California remaining dry. With that in mind, the chance of precipitation remains low with above average temperatures prevailing.

November:  This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.  

November, December, January:  This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.

Wind Discussion:  Winds during the morning will be light to near calm. Winds tonight through early Friday evening will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. gusts to 30 are possibly, especially along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds later Friday night through Sunday will be less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

Rain Discussion: A fast moving trough of low pressure will move down the valley late this afternoon through the evening hours. There is a slight chance of showers or sprinkles from the late afternoon through the late evening hours. However, realistically I believe most areas will remain dry.. expect dry weather this weekend and through all of next week

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight but just slightly above in the coldest locations. For Saturday morning. low to mid 30s appear likely with upper 20s in the coldest locations. A cooler air mass will overspread the valley tonight and Friday. Upsloping will bank clouds up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi and the southern Sierra Nevada, possibly into Saturday morning. a zone of high pressure will dominate our pattern for the next seven nights after tonight. This will warm afternoon highs into the 60s next week with overnight lows mostly in the low to mid 30s. upper 20s are possible in the coldest locations. In the medium range no models are showing a pattern conducive for excessively cold temperatures.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella afPorterville afIvanhoe afWoodlake af
Strathmore afMcFarland afDucor afTea Pot Dome af
Lindsay afExeter afFamoso afMadera af
Belridge af             Delano afNorth Bakersfield afOrosi af
Orange Cove afLindcove afLindcove Hillside afSanger River Bottom af
Root creek afVenice Hill afRosedale afJasmine af
Arvin afLamont afPlainview afMettler af
Edison afMaricopa afHolland Creek afTivy Valley af
Kite Road South afKite Road North af  

AF=Above Freezing

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.  Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. 

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .55, Parlier, .48, Arvin .56, Delano .47.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 55, Arvin 57, Delano 53  

Average Temperatures: 59/39,  Record Temperatures: 77/29

Heating  Degree Days Season.  313 -111 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  .21, Monthly  .21

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .30, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 55.8 +2.4 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 197  Arvin, 154 Belridge, 165 Shafter, 173 Stratford, 175 Delano 176.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 6:53.  Sunset, 4:43  hours of daylight, 9:51

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather: 

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  64 /  37 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  66 /   M /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  64 /  42 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  66 /  38 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  65 /  41 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  66 /  45 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  64 /  36 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  67 /  35 /  0.00 /

Rainfall:                                      24hr        seas.            %            L.Y          %                S.Ave.            365

STOCKTON                         T    0.64    32    1.24    61     2.02    13.45

MODESTO                       0.01    0.96    61    1.19    76     1.57    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    1.00    62    0.99    61     1.62    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.43    33    0.50    38     1.32    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    0.21    15    0.66    47     1.39    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    0.13    12    0.59    56     1.05     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.32    42    0.66    86     0.77     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.25    38    0.46    71     0.65     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.01     5    0.02     9     0.22     2.20

SALINAS                          T    0.22    12    1.46    81     1.80    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.02    1.76   127    0.71    51     1.39    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.02    0.35    22    0.99    61     1.61    13.32

…………………………………………………………………………….

Next report:   November 30/am                                                                                                                                       

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.