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December 5, 2023
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered right over southern California this morning. This will result in temperatures at least 10 degrees above seasonal averages as warmer locations approach the 70 degree mark.Even warmer conditions are expected Wednesday as a southerly flow moves up the valley ahead of a weak trough of low pressure approaching the northern California coast. Readings Wednesday, especially in Kern County, will shoot into the mid to upper 70s which is near record territory for early December. That trough will spread light showers over northern California late Wednesday and early Thursday. The trough will be marked by variable cloudiness over central California but no precipitation. A dry cold front will move down the valley late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Temperatures will drop a good10 to 15 degrees late Thursday and early Friday as high temperatures drop back to seasonal levels. Due to lack of rain, the colder air mass will lead to a series of frost nights beginning as early as Friday morning but more so Saturday and Sunday. As a new area of high pressure takes over, the valley will again become capped, trapping seasonally colder air on the valley floor. More in the frost discussion below. Longer range models still show a dry pattern for the next week and possibly longer.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally part cloudy today after the fog burns off. Variable cloudiness tonight and Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday and on through Thursday of next week.
Temperatures
| Madera 67/40/74/41/60 | Reedley 68/41/75/40/60 | Dinuba 66/40/73/39/61 |
| Porterville 69/41/75/42/61 | Lindsay 67/39/74/41/61 | Delano 70/41/75/42/60 |
| Bakersfield 70/46/76/47/60 | Taft 66/52/75/50/55 | Arvin 71/42/76/43/61 |
| Lamont 71/43/77/44/59 | Pixley 68/42/75/42/60 | Tulare 67/40/73/39/59 |
| Woodlake 67/39/73/41/61 | Hanford 68/40/74/43/61 | Orosi 66/39/73/40/61 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/60 | Saturday Patchy fog/mostly clear 29/59 | Sunday Patchy fog/mostly clear 30/61 | Monday Patchy fog/mostly clear 31/61 | Tuesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 32/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 12 through December18 This model continues the trend of above average temperatures. It also favors a better than even chance of picking up some rain during this time frame.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February : If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather for the next 7 days and possibly longer.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above32 degrees Wednesday and Thursday mornings. A colder air mass will invade central California behind a dry cold front which will move down the valley late Wednesday night and Thursday. The character of this air mass will appear similar to the one that resulted in a string of upper 20s and lower 30s. local areas of frost may occur as early as Friday morning, however Saturday morning and beyond will observe a string of nights with temperatures possibly as low as 27 in the coldest locations. Most flatland locations will range from 29 to 33 or so. I consider this to be a typical early December air mass. The lack of rainfall has left us with dry soil which increases the radiational cooling process. What we really need is a good soaking rain which would increase the amount of fog and low clouds. However, for now that’s simply not in the cards.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella af | Porterville af | Ivanhoe af | Woodlake af |
| Strathmore af | mcFarland af | Ducor af | Tea Pot Dome af |
| Lindsay af | Exeter af | Famoso af | Madera af |
| Belridge af | Delano af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi af |
| Orange Cove af | Lindcove af | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger River Bottom af |
| Root Creek af | Venice Hill af | Rosedale af | Jasmine af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview af | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland Creek af | Tivy Valley af |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North af |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .47, Parlier, .40, Arvin .42, Delano .41.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 54, Arvin 55, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 57/38, Record Temperatures: 74/28
Heating Degree Days Season. 383 -127 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 50.3 +2.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 254 Arvin, 187 Belridge, 205 Shafter, 216 Stratford, 230 Delano 236. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:57. Sunset, 4:42 hours of daylight, 9:46
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 67 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.71 30 2.65 112 2.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.97 52 2.78 149 1.86 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.00 54 2.52 135 1.86 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 28 1.50 97 1.55 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 13 2.35 147 1.60 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 11 1.63 136 1.20 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 36 0.82 91 0.90 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 35 0.62 87 0.71 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 4 0.02 8 0.25 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 33 2.22 105 2.11 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 109 2.50 154 1.62 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 19 2.03 110 1.85 13.32
Next report: December 5/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.