December 6, 2023
Summary: As of 1:30 pm, light showers had fallen down the coast to Santa Cruz and Sacramento inland. These showers are ahead of a weakening cold front which is now in northern California. Ahead of the front in the south valley, temperatures were warming into the mid 70s. the front and its associated trough of low pressure will continue to lose steam as it moves southeastward down the valley this evening. The chance of measurable rain from Fresno County north is plausible, but is unlikely. South of Fresno County, only a few sprinkles are likely. The front will have moved to our southeast by the early morning hours. A much cooler air mass will overspread the valley tonight through Friday. The low to mid 70s of today will be replaced by the low to mid 50s Friday afternoon. As pressures fall over the interior west tonight and begin to rise off shore, there will be enough of a difference in pressure for increasing northwesterly winds. A new area of high pressure will locate roughly 500 miles west of the central coast by Saturday afternoon. By Tuesday, a huge ridge will be anchored off the west coast with a ridge extending northwest into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. This will set the state for a prolonged period of dry weather. Frost is definitely in the forecast beginning Saturday morning as the high traps a shallow layer of cool dry air on the valley floor. More below in the frost discussion. There is still little in model information about breaking the pattern of dry weather this fall. We may move all the way through mid December rain free with the exception of paltry amounts that may be measured this evening.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this afternoon with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north this evening with a slight chance south of that mark. Partly to mostly cloudy late tonight and Friday morning. Becoming mostly clear Thursday afternoon. Mostly clear Thursday night through Sunday with patchy morning fog and much cooler. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday with patchy late night and early morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/61/32/55 | Reedley 41/62/33/55 | Dinuba 38/61/32/55 |
| Porterville 42/60/33/56 | Lindsay 39/61/32/55 | Delano 42/61//34/56 |
| Bakersfield 46//59/36/54 | Taft 50/55/41/52 | Arvin 42/59/35/55 |
| Lamont 43/60/35/56 | Pixley 41/60/32/56 | Tulare 39/59/31/55 |
| Woodlake 40/60/33/55 | Hanford 42/62/33/57 | Orosi 39/61/32/56 |
Winds: Winds through tonight will be generally at or less than 5 mph with period of near calm conditions. From late Wednesday night through Friday, winds will be generally out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph. local gusts to 25 mph are possible Thursday. Winds will decrease by Friday afternoon with light winds returning by Friday evening.
Rain: Light showers have spread as far south as Santa Cruz along the coast and Sacramento inland by 1:30pm. As the cold front advances southward down the valley this evening, it will continue to weaken. Light showers are possible as far south as Fresno County this evening with a slight chance in the south valley. A tenth of an inch could be tallied in Merced County, perhaps a few hundredths in Fresno County with trace amounts, if anything at all, south of Fresno County. Dry weather will return after midnight and should continue for at least the next 7 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing Thursday morning with most stations being above freezing Friday morning. A much cooler air mass will begin to invade the valley tonight. Temperatures Thursday will drop by 10 to 14 degrees and another 5 to 8 degrees Friday. Only the coldest frost pockets will reach the lower 30s Friday morning. Once the air mass settles to the bottom of the valley floor, it will be capped by building high pressure aloft. It appears this airmass’s threshold could lower the coldest locations down to 27 to 28 degrees in the coldest locations Saturday morning and from 29 to 32 in most flat terrain operations. Expect similar conditions Sunday through Tuesday as radiational cooling, combined with the longest nights of the near, create a string of frost nights. From Wednesday through Friday of next week, coldest locations should be around 30 to 31 with most locations between 32 and 35. Hillsides will be above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella af | Porterville af | Ivanhoe af | Woodlake af |
| Strathmore af | mcFarland af | Ducor af | Tea Pot Dome af |
| Lindsay af | Exeter af | Famoso af | Madera af |
| Belridge af | Delano af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi af |
| Orange Cove af | Lindcove af | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger River Bottom af |
| Root Creek af | Venice Hill af | Rosedale af | Jasmine af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview af | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland Creek af | Tivy Valley af |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North af |
AF=Above Freezing