December 11, 2023
Summary: Temperatures are generally 1 to 3 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Readings are mainly in the upper 50s. the high cloud deck that slowed the radiational cooling process has moved off to the southeast, leading to mostly clear skies overnight. In the big picture, a weak trough of low pressure is developing over the Great Basin while a stronger ridge of high pressure is building northward just off shore. This combination will generate a northeast flow above California. By Wednesday, the trough to our east will become a cut off low over Arizona while high pressure aloft builds into California from the west. The result will be a warming trend beginning Wednesday. Over the weekend, a mid Pacific low pressure area will approach the northern California coast, creating a mild southwesterly flow. Temperatures will be nearing the 70 degree mark Saturday and Sunday and clouds will be on the increase. As the low moves inland Sunday night and Monday, it will weaken further so only a small chance of light showers can be added to the forecast. It will, however, finally break down the high pressure system and this may allow another system to move inland next Wednesday and Thursday. Models for the week between Christmas and New Year show a favorable pattern for wet weather.
Forecast: Other than areas of dense fog during the late night and morning hours, it will be mostly clear to partly cloudy through Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. A slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/61/30/63 | Reedley 30/62/31//64 | Dinuba 28/60/29/62 |
| Porterville 28/62/29/63 | Lindsay 28/61/29/63 | Delano 30/62/31/64 |
| Bakersfield 35/63/36/65 | Taft 40/59/42/62 | Arvin 30/62/31/65 |
| Lamont 31/61/32/65 | Pixley 29/62/30/64 | Tulare 27/60/29/62 |
| Woodlake 29/61/30/63 | Hanford 30/62/31/64 | Orosi 28/61/29/63 |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Dry conditions will continue through at least Saturday and possibly Sunday. A weakening low pressure system will move inland Sunday night and Monday. It’s very questionable whether there will be enough dynamics left for rain. At any rate, I feel it’s a good idea to add a chance of rain to the forecast. The chance of rain for later next week is higher as a potentially stronger storm arrives roughly a week from Wednesday or Thursday. Models for the week between Christmas and New Year’s are finally giving a favorable chance for precipitation at times.
Frost: Unlike last night, mostly clear skies will prevail tonight for stronger radiational cooling. Coldest unprotected areas will chill down to 27 to 28 degrees. Most flatland locations will drop to between 29 and 32. Hillsides will remain above freezing. The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Expect similar conditions Wednesday morning. Strong upper level high pressure from Thursday through Friday night will drive temperatures to near 70, which is near record territory for early winter. This will also begin to drag overnight lows up mainly into the 30s from Thursday through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness ahead of a Pacific storm will move overhead, possibly as early as Sunday morning. Lows Sunday through Tuesday of next week should be above freezing due to cloud cover and other parameters. Models for the last week of December appear active and generally mild so for now it looks like we may get through December without a major freeze.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 30 | Porterville 29 | Ivanhoe 28 | Woodlake 30 |
| Strathmore 29 | McFarland 30 | Ducor 31 | Tea pot dome 29 |
| Lindsay 28 | Exeter 28 | Famoso 30 | Madera 29 |
| Belridge 29 | Delano 30 | North Bakersfield 30 | Orosi 28 |
| Orange cove 29 | Lindcove 28 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 27 |
| Root creek 28 | Venice hill 29 | Rosedale 30 | Jasmine 30 |
| Arvin 30 | Lamont 31 | Plainview 29 | Mettler 32 |
| Edison 31 | Maricopa 32 | Holland creek 31 | Tivy Valley 29 |
| Kite Road South 31 | Kite Road North 29 |
AF=Above Freezing