December 12, 2023
Summary: Mostly clear skies led to another chilly night with readings mostly in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. a weak trough of low pressure is working its way through the Great Basin while a sharp ridge of high pressure builds just off shore. The trough eventually will form a cut off low over Arizona while the off shore high builds eastward into California. This will create a northeast flow aloft and an off shore surface flow. Compressional heating off the mountains is the result, driving daytime highs about 10 to 13 degrees above average Friday through Sunday. Warmest locations will be near 70 degrees. By Saturday night, a low center will be approaching the California coast. As this storm moves inland Sunday night and Monday, light showers could occur. However, this mid Pacific storm will lose its dynamics as it pushes inland, so any precipitation that does occur will be minimal, at best. Models show another system about a week from Thursday which, theoretically, has a better chance of maintaining upper air support to sustain itself as it moves into California. The two week model which encompasses the 19th through the 25th is calling for a decent chance of rain. With a little luck, we could possibly end this long dry spell.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through tonight with patchy late night and early morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Saturday night with patchy late night fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a small chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday. A slight chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures
| Madera 62/30/63/31/67 | Reedley 63/30/63/31/65 | Dinuba 61/29/62/30/63 |
| Porterville 62/29/63/30/66 | Lindsay 61/29/62/30/65 | Delano 62/30/64/32/67 |
| Bakersfield 62/35/65/37/69 | Taft 58/42/59/46/63 | Arvin 63/32/65/33/68 |
| Lamont 63/32/65/33/68 | Pixley 62/30/64/32/67 | Tulare 62/28/62/30/65 |
| Woodlake 61/29/62/30/65 | Hanford 62/32/63/33/66 | Orosi 62/29/62/30/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Partly cloudy 35/68 | Saturday Partly cloudy 35/70 | Sunday Pm showers possible 40/63 | Monday Slight chance of showers 45/69 | Tuesday Slight chance of showers 45/68 |
Two Week Outlook: December 19 through December25 This model shows the dome of high pressure protecting California finally breaking down. Temperatures, however, will remain somewhat below average. The risk of rain is considerably higher on this model.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February : If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather to hold through at least Saturday night. Beginning Sunday, a large mid Pacific storm will approach the California coast, but will weaken considerably as it moves inland. Just a small chance of light showers is all I expect as the storm will lose most of its upper air support on its journey inland. This system does, however, remove the dome of high pressure along the west coast, allowing more energy to move on shore later next week. Models show a more significant storm moving inland Thursday or Friday of next week for a greater chance of precipitation. Models for the week between Christmas and New Year show high potential for more Pacific storms to move inland to hopefully begin to make up rain deficits and put an end to this dry spell.
Frost Discussion: Fowler, Orange Cove, and Ivanhoe were reporting temperatures of 29 as of 5:00am. Most other locations had chilled into the lower 30s. Wednesday morning will be very similar with coldest unprotected regions potentially falling down to 27 to 28 degrees. Most flatland locations will see lows between 29 and 32. Hillsides will remain above freezing. The inversion tonight will again be decent with temperatures at34 feet generally 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Temperatures Thursday morning should be a degree or two warmer as we head into the Friday through Saturday period. Daytime highs will push the 70 degree mark. This will begin to drag up low temperatures, as well. Most locations will be in the low to mid 30s. By Sunday readings should be in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. for now, next week appears to be above freezing due to increased sky cover and even a chance of rain. Above average temperatures show up on models for the rest of December so hopefully we can move through November and December with no significant freeze.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 31 | Porterville 30 | Ivanhoe 29 | Woodlake 30 |
| Strathmore 30 | McFarland 30 | Ducor 31 | Tea pot dome 31 |
| Lindsay 29 | Exeter 29 | Famoso 32 | Madera 30 |
| Belridge 29 | Delano 31 | North Bakersfield 31 | Orosi 29 |
| Orange cove 30 | Lindcove 29 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 27 |
| Root creek 28 | Venice hill 30 | Rosedale 32 | Jasmine 31 |
| Arvin 32 | Lamont 32 | Plainview 30 | Mettler 32 |
| Edison 31 | Maricopa 32 | Holland creek 32 | Tivy Valley 29 |
| Kite Road South 32 | Kite Road North 29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .47, Parlier, .40, Arvin .44, Delano .39.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 54, Arvin 55, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 56/37, Record Temperatures: 69/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 468 -152 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 50.4 +3.4 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 322 Arvin, 246 Belridge, 262 Shafter, 280 Stratford, 284 Delano 295. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:02. Sunset, 4:43 hours of daylight, 9:42
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 61 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 61 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.74 26 4.23 151 2.81 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 43 4.25 188 2.26 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.01 46 3.57 163 2.19 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 23 1.98 105 1.88 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 11 3.21 169 1.90 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 2.27 160 1.42 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 30 0.90 83 1.08 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 31 1.26 156 0.81 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 3 0.02 7 0.29 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 28 3.23 129 2.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 90 4.02 206 1.95 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 16 2.73 125 2.19 13.32
Next report: December 12/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.