December 13, 2023
Summary: As of the time of this writing, most locations had chilled into the low 30s with a few pockets in the upper 20s. A cut off low is developing over northwest Arizona while a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure is building in from the west. This is creating a north/northeast flow which is conducive for a warming trend. This will be most pronounced during the daylight hours. By Saturday, a large mid Pacific storm will be centered roughly 600 miles west of the northern California coast. The high, which has protected California for the past 6 weeks, will finally give way, allowing the low to move inland Sunday night and Monday. Even though this system will be weakening, it should hold onto enough dynamics for light showers Sunday night and Monday. After this system shifts inland, a second storm will move out of the Gulf of Alaska around next Wednesday or Thursday. With origins in the northwest Pacific, this system will be colder with lower snow levels. Models are still pointing to on and off active weather between Christmas and New Year.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight with patchy fog this morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. A slight chance of showers Sunday. Light showers becoming likely Sunday night and Monday. A slight chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. A chance of rain Wednesday.
Temperatures
| Madera 63/30//67/32/69 | Reedley 64//30/66/32/66 | Dinuba 63/29/65//31/66 |
| Porterville 64/30/67/31/68 | Lindsay 63/29/66/31/67 | Delano 65/31/69/33/70 |
| Bakersfield 65/37/69/39/73 | Taft 62/44/65/48/68 | Arvin 65/32/68/34/70 |
| Lamont 65/32/68/34/71 | Pixley 64/31/67/34/69 | Tulare 63/29/65/31/67 |
| Woodlake 64/30/67/32/68 | Hanford 64/31/67/33/68 | Orosi 64/29/66/32/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Increasing clouds 37/70 | Sunday Pm rain possible 32/72 | Monday Showers 48/69 | Tuesday Partly cloudy 43/67 | Wednesday Chance of rain 46/66 |
Two Week Outlook: December 20 through December26 This model shows the dome of high pressure protecting California finally breaking down. Temperatures, however, will remain somewhat below average. The risk of rain is considerably higher on this model.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February : If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain Discussion: Dry conditions will continue through Saturday night. A weaking mid Pacific storm will move on shore late Sunday through Monday. Current models indicate this system now has a better than even chance of providing light showers Saturday night and off and on through Monday. This system will weaken as it moves inland, so only light amounts of precipitation are anticipated. A second, colder storm will move in from the Gulf of Alaska, arriving late Wednesday or Thursday for another chance of rain. The overall pattern between Christmas and new year does not show the blocking ridge pattern which has kept us so dry this season. Therefore, there will be chances of precipitation from time to time from the 22 through the 31.
Frost Discussion: Ivanhoe, Lindsay, and Porterville had each chilled down to 29 as of 5:30 this morning for the coldest I could find. Most other locations had dipped into the lower 30s. lows Thursday morning will be a degree or two milder with another one to two degrees of moderation Friday morning. Most riverbottom type locations will bottom out at 28 to29 degrees tonight and unsheltered locations. Most flatland locations will come in between 33 and 34 with hillsides remaining above freezing. The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 6 to 10 degrees warmer at most locations. Lows Friday morning will be a degree or two milder at most locations. A strong northwesterly flow ahead of a mid Pacific low will keep conditions above freezing through Sunday. The weather next week will become active for above freezing conditions next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 31 | Porterville 30 | Ivanhoe 29 | Woodlake 30 |
| Strathmore 30 | McFarland 31 | Ducor 31 | Tea pot dome 30 |
| Lindsay 29 | Exeter 29 | Famoso 31 | Madera 30 |
| Belridge 29 | Delano 32 | North Bakersfield 32 | Orosi 29 |
| Orange cove 30 | Lindcove 28 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 28 |
| Root creek 29 | Venice hill 30 | Rosedale 32 | Jasmine 31 |
| Arvin 33 | Lamont 33 | Plainview 30 | Mettler 33 |
| Edison 32 | Maricopa 33 | Holland creek 32 | Tivy Valley 29 |
| Kite Road South 32 | Kite Road North 29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .41, Arvin .44, Delano .40.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Arvin 54, Delano 51
Average Temperatures: 56/37, Record Temperatures: 72/23
Heating Degree Days Season. 503 -155 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 49.9 +3.0 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 350 Arvin, 276 Belridge, 292 Shafter, 309 Stratford, 310 Delano 328. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:03. Sunset, 4:44 hours of daylight, 9:41
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.74 25 4.47 151 2.97 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 41 4.48 187 2.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.01 44 3.77 163 2.31 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 22 2.04 102 2.00 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 11 3.25 163 2.00 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 2.34 155 1.51 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 28 1.10 96 1.15 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 30 2.15 256 0.84 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 3 0.03 10 0.30 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 27 3.77 143 2.64 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 85 4.34 210 2.07 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 15 3.27 142 2.31 13.32
Next report: December 13/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.