December 14, 2023
Summary: Temperatures were uniformly in the lower 30s this morning with only a few isolated low spots dipping into the upper 20s. currently, a cut off low is located over Arizona this morning with a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure building into California from the west. This ridge will drive temperatures into the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. Warmer locations Friday and Saturday will surpass the 70 degree mark which is record territory for this late in the season. On Saturday, a large Pacific storm will be approaching the northern California coast. This system will be a slow mover with an increasing chance of rain from the west Sunday and rain becoming likely Sunday night. As this system moves inland, it will clear a path for a second system to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Wednesday into Thursday. There are certainly timing issues with all this. That being said, it’s nice to add the likelihood of precipitation to the forecast for a change. Even models going out through the end of the year are indicating a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
Forecast: Partly cloudy skies through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. Rain becoming likely by late Sunday afternoon. Rain likely Sunday night and Monday. A chance of showers at any given time between Tuesday night and Thursday.
Temperatures
| Madera 66/33/68/34/71 | Reedley 67/33/69/35/71 | Dinuba 65/31/67/34/70 |
| Porterville 67/32/68/34/71 | Lindsay 66/31/67/34/71 | Delano 68/34/70/35/73 |
| Bakersfield 67/49/71/42/74 | Taft 64/45/68/45/70 | Arvin 68/34/71/37/74 |
| Lamont 67/34/69/36/73 | Pixley 67/32/69/34/72 | Tulare 65/30/66/34/69 |
| Woodlake 66/32/67/34/70 | Hanford 66/33/67/34/71 | Orosi 65/31/66/33/70 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Pm rain 44/71 | Monday Chance of showers 48/69 | Tuesday Chance of showers 49/69 | Wednesday Chance of showers 47/67 | Thursday Chance of showers 47/67 |
Two Week Outlook: December 21 through December27 This model shows the dome of high pressure protecting California finally breaking down. Temperatures, however, will remain somewhat below average. The risk of rain is considerably higher on this model.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February : If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: For the first time in around 2 months, we can actually put the likelihood of rain in the forecast. Dry weather will continue through at least Saturday night then, as a large Pacific storm approaches, the chance of rain will increase by Sunday afternoon, becoming likely at times Sunday night. This first storm will also clear the path for a second area of low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska. Models vary on the timing of this system, but currently next Wednesday and Thursday will be the target dates. Each set of model runs that comes across my desk looks wetter than the previous run. It’s always a dicey game trying to predict rainfall amounts, but from Sunday through Wednesday, somewhere between a third and a half an inch appears likely at this time north of Kern County with lesser amounts in Kern County.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures this afternoon will continue the warming trend that began yesterday with widespread mid to upper 60s. There will also be in and out mid and high level clouds, however it’s doubtful this will have much effect on the radiational cooling process. We’re to the point now where many locations will remain above freezing. It’s possible coldest locations could chill down to 28 or so. However, these will be isolated pockets with most flatland locations ranging between 30 and 35. Similar conditions to a degree or two warmer can be expected Saturday morning. An active pattern will begin Sunday. There will be a moist, southwesterly flow above California for the first half of next week. This will keep conditions above freezing until at least Thursday of next week. Currently, models are not showing anything potentially damaging through at least the end of the years.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella af | Porterville 32 | Ivanhoe 31 | Woodlake af |
| Strathmore 32 | McFarland 32 | Ducor af | Tea pot dome 32 |
| Lindsay 31 | Exeter 31 | Famoso af | Madera af |
| Belridge 31 | Delano af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi 31 |
| Orange cove 32 | Lindcove 31 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 29 |
| Root creek 30 | Venice hill 32 | Rosedale af | Jasmine af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview 32 | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland creek af | Tivy Valley 31 |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North 31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .45, Parlier, .38, Arvin .42, Delano .36.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Arvin 54, Delano 50
Average Temperatures: 55/37, Record Temperatures: 74/21
Heating Degree Days Season. 520 -157 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 49.7 +2.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 350 Arvin, 276 Belridge, 292 Shafter, 309 Stratford, 310 Delano 328. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:04. Sunset, 4:44 hours of daylight, 9:40
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
MERCED 0.00 1.01 43 3.77 159 2.37 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 21 2.04 99 2.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 10 3.25 159 2.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 2.34 152 1.54 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 27 1.10 93 1.18 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 29 2.15 250 0.86 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 3 0.03 10 0.31 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 26 3.77 139 2.71 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 83 4.34 205 2.12 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 15 3.27 138 2.37 13.32
Next report: December 14/pm At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.