December 15, 2023
Summary: Temperatures as of midday have already moved into the mid 60s at most locations. No doubt there will be some near 70 readings out there before sunset. Satellite imagery depicts a considerable amount of high, thin clouds streaming overhead. These are the precursors of a major pattern change which will become more apparent as we move into the early part of next week. A large area of low pressure is centered roughly 800 miles west of the central coast. This storm is projected to slowly move eastward, centering off the northern and central California coast by Sunday afternoon. Rain will initially reach the central coast then spread slowly inland Sunday night. A strong southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this storm will bring bands of rain inland Monday into Tuesday. This first storm will never really move inland, but will weaken as a second low moves out of the Gulf of Alaska to a position off the central coast by Tuesday evening. Models peg this system as a very slow mover as it slides southward just off shore Tuesday night through Friday. The counter clockwise circulation around the low will pinwheel bands of moisture inland, meaning there will be a chance of rain at any given time from Monday through Friday of next week. That doesn’t mean it will be raining the entire time, but rather there is at least a 50% chance of rain at any given location and time through the entire period. Most of the models this afternoon show the low moving very slowly southward parallel to the coast, eventually moving inland next Saturday. Dry weather will return for a few days next weekend into the Christmas weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight and Saturday. Variable cloudiness Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. A chance of rain Sunday night, mainly after midnight. Rain likely at times Monday through Tuesday. A chance of rain at any given time Tuesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/69/35/69 | Reedley 34/70/35/70 | Dinuba 32/68/34/69 |
| Porterville 33/71/34/71 | Lindsay 32/70/34/71 | Delano 34/71/35/70 |
| Bakersfield 39/72/41/72 | Taft 47/68/52/68 | Arvin 36/72/36/71 |
| Lamont 35/71/36/72 | Pixley 34/71/35/70 | Tulare 32/68/33/69 |
| Woodlake 33/69/34/70 | Hanford 33/71/34/69 | Orosi 32/70/34/69 |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of calm conditions through Saturday night. Winds Sunday will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts possible from Merced County southward through western Fresno County. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be generally out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, especially near showers.
Rain: Models this afternoon continue to show the onset of precipitation next week being delayed. There will be a chance of rain as early as the predawn hours Monday morning. However, during the day Monday is the most plausible forecast solution. We will be dealing with two separate storm systems this upcoming week. The first system will arrive late Sunday night and continue into early Tuesday while storm number two will be centered just off the central coast by mid week, continuing the risk of rain all the way through Friday. This second storm is very close to becoming a cut off low, which are always difficult to forecast. It would appear the heaviest precipitation next week will be over the southern half of the valley as that storm slowly drifts southward off shore, eventually moving into southern California next weekend. Longer range models show active weather moving into northern California during the Christmas weekend with central California being on the southern fringe of this activity. Even though there are a lot of variables to consider, at least the needle is pointed in the right direction to bring much needed precipitation to central California.
Frost: Only the coldest frost pockets will be near to slightly below freezing tonight and again Sunday morning. It’s possible a cold river bottom type location or two could drop to 29 to 30 degrees. Most locations however will range between 32 and 36 degrees. Similar conditions to a degree or two warmer can be expected Sunday morning. A long awaited active pattern will begin Sunday night and Monday. Expect above freezing conditions each day through all of next week. There is still nothing on models indicating below freezing conditions on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella af | Porterville af | Ivanhoe 32 | Woodlake af |
| Strathmore af | McFarland af | Ducor af | Tea pot dome af |
| Lindsay 32 | Exeter 32 | Famoso af | Madera af |
| Belridge 32 | Delano af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi af |
| Orange cove af | Lindcove 32 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 30 |
| Root creek 31 | Venice hill af | Rosedale af | Jasmine af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview af | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland creek af | Tivy Valley af |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North af |