December 16, 2023
Summary: a large area of low pressure is located roughly 800 miles west of the central coast this morning. this storm will slowly move eastward towards the coast, spreading precipitation into central California late Sunday night or early Monday morning. the pattern for the next week is quite complex. The first of two storms will enter the picture Monday with widespread precipitation and even a chance of isolated thunderstorms. This system will weaken and move inland Tuesday, however a second system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska, positioning itself off the northern California coast Tuesday. Models indicate this system will slowly move southward parallel to the California coast, giving periods of wet weather Wednesday through Friday of next week. this pattern is somewhat unusual, mainly due to its slow movement which will keep periodic episodes of rain in our region Wednesday through Friday. How much precipitation will largely be determined by how close the center of circulation becomes as it moves southward just off shore. If it turns out to be a coastal hugger, fairly substantial rain amounts may occur. If it moves southward a bit further off shore than models are projecting, lighter rainfall amounts will be likely. This system will finally move inland by Saturday with dry weather for the Christmas holiday weekend. However, models are showing a westerly flow setting up across the Pacific between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day for additional chances of precipitation as we end up the year.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through tonight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. A chance of rain after midnight Sunday night. rain likely at times Monday through Tuesday night with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Periods of rain can be expected Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of showers at any given time Thursday through Friday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday with areas of morning fog.
Temperatures
| Madera 68/34/69/46/70 | Reedley 70/34/70/47/70 | Dinuba 68/33/69/46/69 |
| Porterville 71/34/70/45/69 | Lindsay 69/33/69/44/68 | Delano 70/771/35/70 |
| Bakersfield 71/40/70/51/72 | Taft 68/49/68/56/69 | Arvin 71/36/70/47/71 |
| Lamont 71/36/70/47/70` | Pixley 70/34/71/46/70 | Tulare 68/32/68/44/68 |
| Woodlake 69/33/69/44/68 | Hanford 70/34/69/44/68 | Orosi 69//32/68/44/68 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Periods of rain 51/70 | Wednesday Showers likely 48/68 | Thursday Chance of showers 48/68 | Friday Chance of showers\ 41/63 | Saturday Partly cloudy 38/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 23 through December29 This model shows a westerly flow across the Pacific and into California. This is typically a mild pattern with above average temperatures. The risk of precipitation is fairly high with this pattern.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February : If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Sunday. The chance of rain will begin to increase after midnight Sunday with the likelihood of periods of rain Monday through Tuesday. Periods of showers will continue Wednesday through Thursday night with a chance of showers Friday. Rainfall amounts for Monday through Friday from Fresno County northward through Merced County could potentially add up to an inch and a half to two inches. In Tulare County, an inch to an inch and a half and possibly one half to three quarters of an inch in Kings and Kern Counties. Dry weather should return Saturday through Christmas Day. Models are showing another possible round of precipitation between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day.
Frost Discussion: Tonight will be the last night of frost we’ll see for a while. Lows in the very coldest low lying areas will drop to 30 to 32 Sunday morning with most locations between 33 and 37. An active pattern will begin Sunday night with above freezing conditions for not just Sunday night, but each night for the upcoming week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella af | Porterville af | Ivanhoe 32 | Woodlake af |
| Strathmore af | McFarland af | Ducor af | Tea pot dome af |
| Lindsay 31 | Exeter 32 | Famoso af | Madera af |
| Belridge 32 | Delano af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi af |
| Orange cove af | Lindcove 32 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 30 |
| Root creek 31 | Venice hill af | Rosedale af | Jasmine af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview af | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland creek af | Tivy Valley af |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North af |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .42, Parlier, .40, Arvin .46, Delano .39.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52, Arvin 53, Delano 49
Average Temperatures: 55/36, Record Temperatures: 70/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 551 -164 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 49.7 +3.0 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 392 Arvin, 313 Belridge, 334 Shafter, 351 Stratford, 348 Delano 368. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:05. Sunset, 4:45 hours of daylight, 9:39
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 67 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 69 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
MERCED 0.00 1.01 40 3.77 151 2.50 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 20 2.04 94 2.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 10 3.25 150 2.16 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 2.34 144 1.63 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 26 1.10 88 1.25 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 28 2.15 242 0.89 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 3 0.03 9 0.33 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 25 3.77 133 2.84 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 79 4.34 194 2.24 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 14 3.27 131 2.49 13.32
Next report: December 16/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.