December 17, 2023
Summary: Clouds are increasing ahead of a large low pressure system located roughly 600 miles west of the central coast. This storm will continue to slowly move eastward and will be absorbed by a second low which will be just off the northern California coast Wednesday. It appears this storm will be a coastal hugger as models are showing it moving very slowly southward parallel to the California coast and just off shore. As the storm moves slowly south, the counterclockwise circulation around the low will cause bands of moisture to stream inland from time to time through at least Thursday. It’s possible we could see some light showers this afternoon. The deeper subtropical moisture will move onshore tonight, reaching the valley sometime after midnight. Satellite imagery is showing some thunderstorm activity within the low which could affect the valley Tuesday through Wednesday. By Thursday night, the low will have progressed to a position west of San Diego, finally moving into northern Baja Saturday. It appears the Christmas weekend, or at least Saturday through Monday, will be dry. Medium range models encompassing the week between Christmas and New Year’s are still indicating another opportunity for rain between the 26 and 29 as a zonal flow develops, meaning a strong westerly flow in the upper atmosphere headed for the northern half of California.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today with a chance of light showers this afternoon. Rain tonight, mainly after midnight. Rain at times Monday through Wednesday. Showers likely Wednesday night through Thursday night. a chance of showers Friday, mainly in Kern County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds’
Temperatures
| Madera 68//48/68/49/68 | Reedley 69/47/69/50/68 | Dinuba 67/47/67/50/68 |
| Porterville 70/47/68/50/67 | Lindsay 69/46/68/49/67 | Delano 70/48/69/48/67 |
| Bakersfield 70/50/71/51/70 | Taft 67/55/68/56/67 | Arvin 71/48/70/50/69 |
| Lamont 71/49/70/50/69 | Pixley 70/46/67//48/68 | Tulare 68/46/68/48/68 |
| Woodlake 68/46/67/50/67 | Hanford 69/47/68/50/67 | Orosi 68/46/68/49/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday Showers likely 48/68 | Thursday Showers likely 47/67 | Friday\ Chance of showers 41/62 | Saturday Am fog/pm sun 38/61 | Sunday Am fog/pm sun 35/60 |
Two Week Outlook: December 23 through December29 This model shows a westerly flow across the Pacific and into California. This is typically a mild pattern with above average temperatures. The risk of precipitation is fairly high with this pattern.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February: If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: There’s a chance of sprinkles or scattered light showers today, however the deeper subtropical moisture will arrive tonight, mainly after midnight, and Monday. so far models continue to portray this upcoming event as a coastal hugger. What we have is a very slow moving storm which will slide southward just off shore. As it does, it will rotate bands of moisture inland for periods of rain at times Monday through Thursday. Most of the high resolution precipitation estimates for the valley indicate an inch to an inch and a half in eastern Fresno, Merced, and Madera counties is possible, somewhere between .75 to 1.25 for Tulare County, between .50 and .75 for kings County, and generally one-half inch or less over the valley portion of kern County. It now appears that Friday will be dry with the possible exception of kern County. Dry weather will greet us for the Christmas holiday weekend. Models still indicate another chance of rain the 26 and off and on through the 29.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through at least Saturday. It appears lows will drop back into the 30s on Sunday of next week, but no significant frost threat is seen at this time.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .43, Parlier, .42, Arvin .47, Delano .40.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 51, Arvin 52, Delano 49
Average Temperatures: 55/36, Record Temperatures: 70/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 565 -165 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 49.8 +3.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 405 Arvin, 325 Belridge, 347 Shafter, 365 Stratford, 367 Delano 382. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:06. Sunset, 4:45 hours of daylight, 9:39
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 70 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 69 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
MERCED 0.00 1.01 40 3.77 151 2.50 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 20 2.04 94 2.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 10 3.25 150 2.16 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 2.34 144 1.63 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 26 1.10 88 1.25 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 28 2.15 242 0.89 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 3 0.03 9 0.33 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 25 3.77 133 2.84 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 79 4.34 194 2.24 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 14 3.27 131 2.49 13.32
Next report: December 18/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.