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December 20, 2023 report

December 20, 2023                                                                   

Summary: Rainfall amounts from the current event have been very sporadic due to the showery nature of the pattern. some representative amounts are: Visalia .61, Hanford .39, Delano .10, Dinuba .40, Tulare .48, Clovis .16, Madera .14, Fresno .08, Merced . Currently, doppler radar is showing just light amounts, however there’s a wide swath of rain just moving on shore along the central coast. The center of the current storm is located just 150 west of the Golden Gate this morning and is drifted southward slowly, parallel to the central coast. By Thursday, the center of circulation will have drifted to just west of Vandenburg AFB. On Friday, it will be just west of Tijuana, Mexico. Rain Friday will be confined mainly to the south valley. The low will finally begin to move eastward through northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest Saturday. High pressure will finally begin to push in from the west Saturday as the main storm track moves north into the Pacific Northwest for the Christmas holiday weekend. Models show a trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific northwest next Wednesday for the possibility of showers over mainly northern California. Another trough will pass through the following weekend.

Forecast;  scattered light showers for a time this morning. rain by late morning through the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by this afternoon. Showers likely Thursday and Thursday with a chance of showers Friday. A slight chance of showers Friday night, mainly in Kern County. Partly cloudy Saturday with areas of morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a slight chance of showers Wednesday.

Temperatures                

Madera 65/46/63/44/61Reedley 68/46/62/42/60Dinuba 65/45/63/43/61
Porterville 68/46/63/42/61Lindsay 67/45/62/42/61Delano 69/51/63/50/61
Bakersfield 71/51/63/52/61Taft 65/53/63/52/61Arvin 70/52/64/53/62
Lamont 70/50/63/50/61Pixley 67/47/63/45/61Tulare 66/45/61/43/59
Woodlake 66/46/62/44/61Hanford 67/46/63/43/62Orosi 65/44/63/43/61

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday\[ Partly cloudy 42/61Sunday Am fog/pm sun 37/60Monday Am fog/pm sun 33/58  Tuesday Increasing clouds 32/59Wednesday Slight chance of rain 40/52

Two Week Outlook:  Christmas Day through December31 This model shows a westerly flow across the Pacific and into California. This is typically a mild pattern with above average temperatures. The risk of precipitation is fairly high with this pattern.

December:  This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.   

December, January, February:  If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.  

Wind Discussion:  There is enough difference in surface pressure between the interior and the off shore low to spawn some gusty winds, mainly in the south valley. These winds could kick up to 40 to 45 mph, especially just below the base of the Tehachapi mountains. Elsewhere, winds will be mainly out of the east or southeast at 8 to 15 mph. gusts to 25 mph will be possible. Winds Friday and Saturday will be generally at or less than   10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.   

Rain Discussion:  Rainfall amounts have varied widely, ranging from nothing to .87 up at Merced. As of the time of this writing, we were in a lull however doppler radar is showing a large swath of moisture moving onto the coast which will move into the valley later today. The chance for more significant precipitation will begin late this morning and continue on and off through Thursday night. The bulk of the precipitation Friday will be in the south valley as the precipitation field moves to the south. The Christmas holiday weekend will be dry. The next chance of precipitation will occur next Wednesday as we find ourselves in the southern limit of a trough moving through northern California.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through at least Saturday and possibly Sunday. Over the weekend, a cold low will drop into the Great Basin. The main challenge will be determining how much of this cold air will spill into California. My current thinking is lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s will be possible Monday and Tuesday of next week. models this morning have upped the temperatures a bit. Longer range models continue to indicate polar air masses will remain bottled up in Canada and will remain there through the end of the year.

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.  Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. 

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .36, Parlier, .37, Arvin .45, Delano .36.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 51, Arvin 53, Delano 50  

Average Temperatures: 54/36,  Record Temperatures: 70/24

Heating  Degree Days Season.  591 -203  varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  .26, Monthly  .05

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .32, Monthly:  .T

Average Temperature this Month 50.8 +4.4 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 428  Arvin, 343 Belridge, 365 Shafter, 383 Stratford, 381 Delano 399.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 7:08.  Sunset, 4:46  hours of daylight, 9:39

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather: 

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  67 /  57 /  0.29 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  70 /  55 /  0.09 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  67 /  55 /  0.04 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  66 /  52 /  0.38 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  67 /  50 /  0.04 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  68 /  52 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  62 /  54 /  0.36 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  64 /  51 /  0.12 /

Rainfall:                                      24hr        seas.            %            L.Y          %                S.Ave.            365

STOCKTON                      0.28    1.83    52    4.47   127     3.51    13.45

MODESTO                       0.05    1.77    61    4.48   154     2.90    12.27

MERCED                        0.28    1.45    53    3.77   137     2.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.12    0.71    29    2.04    85     2.41    10.79

FRESNO                        0.05    0.26    11    3.25   135     2.40    10.99

HANFORD                       0.16    0.29    16    2.34   129     1.81     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                      T    0.32    23    1.10    79     1.40     6.36

BISHOP                           T    0.25    26    2.15   222     0.97     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.01     3    0.03     8     0.36     2.20

SALINAS                       0.23    1.21    39    3.77   121     3.11    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.15    2.42    96    4.34   173     2.51    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.27    0.67    24    3.27   119     2.75    13.32

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Next report:   December 20/pm                                                                                                                                       

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.