December 22, 2023
Summary: the dividing line between widespread showers over southern California and dry weather over central California is just south of Bakersfield as of the time of this writing. As the low drops further south this evening, active weather will progress further south as well, leaving us with a dry forecast. Further north, the challenge is fog and low clouds. Satellite imagery shows the Sacramento Valley has cleared as well as the northern San Joaquin Valley, but a low overcast shrouds the central and south valley. Bakersfield is reporting the base of the overcast at 900 feet, it’s 1,400 feet at Porterville, 1,500 feet at Fresno and just 400 feet at Visalia with Madera reporting a low overcast at just 1,600 feet. There’s only a 2 to 3 degree difference between temperature and dew point this afternoon, meaning where it has cleared, ground fog will quickly re-form as the temperature reaches the dew point shortly after sunset. In the broad picture, the upper low is southwest of Orange County this afternoon and will make its move eastward through northern Baja tonight and Saturday. This is allowing upper level high pressure to build in from the west, increasing the warm air inversion above the valley floor and making our winter cat and mouse game of fog and low clouds the largest forecast challenge. The trick will be how much clearing occurs each afternoon and its effect on temperatures. On mostly clear nights, lows will fall into the 30s while locations with overcast will only dip into the 40s. the off shore high will dominate our weather through the middle of next week. forecast models are still showing a Pacific storm moving into northern and central California Wednesday night and Thursday. This will lead to our next chance of precipitation.
Forecast: Widespread fog and/or low clouds tonight and Saturday morning with at least partial afternoon clearing Saturday afternoon. Extensive night and morning fog and low clouds through Wednesday with partial afternoon clearing. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night leading to a chance of rain, especially from Fresno north. A chance of showers Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday with a chance of low clouds and fog.
Short Term:
Madera 40/58/39/59 | Reedley 41/58//41/59 | Dinuba 40/59/39/58 |
Porterville 46/60/42/59 | Lindsay 44/61/39/59 | Delano 48/60/41/58 |
Bakersfield 48/60/42/59 | Taft 51/58/45/55 | Arvin 49/60//44/59 |
Lamont 49/59/43/59 | Pixley 46/61/39/59 | Tulare 42/59/38/59 |
Woodlake 41/58/39/59 | Hanford 42/60/39/58 | Orosi 42/60/39/59 |
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: The lingering showers in the extreme south valley will end slowly southward over the next several hours. Expect dry weather tonight through Wednesday. The next Pacific storm to affect central California will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday. Models show the valley on the southern limit of the active portion of this storm, but it does deserve placing a chance of showers in the forecast. Another slight chance will occur Saturday of next week. models are also showing an active pattern the first week of January.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. Some lower 30s could occur Monday through Wednesday night. However, fog and low clouds are going to play roles this time around as my annual guessing game as I try to outwit the fog. Essentially, safe conditions will continue through most if not all of next week. models continue to show polar air being bottled up far to our north with largely above average temperatures in our neck of the woods clear through the first week in January.