December 29, 2023
Summary: A ridge of high pressure currently overhead will shift eastward later today in response to a trough of low pressure. This trough has good upper air support and satellite imagery illustrates a tap of subtropical moisture running from southwest to northeast ahead of the frontal system which will move through tonight. Satellite imagery also depicts a bubbly pattern to the clouds behind the front which indicates there may be enough convection for isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Rain will reach the west side of the valley late this afternoon or early this evening then will spread inland tonight. Rainfall amounts should be fairly substantial with this storm, ranging from a quarter to a third of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County to as much as an inch from Fresno County north. The trough will shift into the Great Basin Saturday night. allowing a much weaker trough to move into southern California Sunday night and early Monday. currently it appears any precipitation will be confined to southern California. High pressure will build in Tuesday and Tuesday night followed by yet another system Wednesday. On paper, this system does not look as strong as the current storm, but strong enough to spread precipitation down the valley once again. Longer range models show yet a third system affecting central California about a week from Wednesday.
Forecast; Partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness by late this afternoon. Rain at times tonight and Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night. mostly to partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night with a slight chance of showers. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. periods of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. partly to mostly cloudy Thursday through Friday with areas of morning fog.
Madera 67/43/59/39/59 | Reedley 69/46/60/40/58 | Dinuba 68/47/59/42/54 |
Porterville 70/44/59/45/59 | Lindsay 69/44/60/41/58 | Delano 70/45/60/46/60 |
Bakersfield 71/46/60/46/68 | Taft 67/50/59/48/55 | Arvin 71/46/58/43/58 |
Lamont 70/47/59/43/58 | Pixley 68/45/59/43/59 | Tulare 68/42/59/40/59 |
Woodlake 69/46/59/42/57 | Hanford 70/46/60/41/57 | Orosi 68/44/59/40/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
Monday Partly cloudy 36/59 | Tuesday Increasing clouds 34/58 | Wednesday Periods of rain 39/59 | Thursday Periods of showers 39/58 | Friday Am fog/pm sun 34/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10: This model shows a possible north to northwest flow developing for a possible trend of below average temperatures. There is a better than even chance that precipitation will occur during this period.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February: If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: The chance of rain will begin to increase by early this evening with periods of rain overnight continuing through much of the day Saturday. Models also indicate there’s quite a bit of bounce in the air mass behind the front so isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. Rainfall from this system could potentially be fairly significant, ranging from .75 to 1 inch over much of Merced, Madera and Fresno Counties to roughly .33 to .50 over Tulare County and .25 to .33 over the valley portion of Kern County. Rain will be over by Saturday evening with dry weather through Tuesday night of next week. the next significant event will be Wednesday followed by another Thursday. Models also point to another system possibly affecting the valley the second half of next weekend.
Frost Discussion: all locations will be above freezing tonight through Monday morning. low to mid 30s will be possible Tuesday morning and possibly Wednesday morning but only in the very coldest locations. Low to mid 30s will again be possible Thursday through Saturday mornings, but again only in the coldest locations. We’re still watching the pattern for the eighth through the tenth of January. For the first time this season, models are indicating a north to northwest flow into the US with modified arctic air. We are not, as of this time, forecasting a freeze during this period. What I am saying is that for the first time this winter season, it looks like the pattern may be more favorable for freezing temperatures. Again, that’s for the eighth through the tenth and beyond.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .20, Parlier, .20, Arvin .20, Delano .20.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Arvin 55, Delano 53
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 66/24
Heating Degree Days Season. 674 -280 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .73, Monthly .52
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .79, Monthly: .47
Average Temperature this Month 51.8 +5.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 441 Arvin, 359 Belridge, 394 Shafter, 401 Stratford, 420 Delano 416. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:11. Sunset, 4:51 hours of daylight, 9:40
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 60 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 62 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.05 2.31 55 5.80 139 4.18 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 2.61 74 6.23 177 3.52 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.33 71 4.81 146 3.30 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.45 49 2.57 88 2.93 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.73 25 4.45 151 2.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.01 45 3.29 148 2.23 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.79 46 1.93 112 1.72 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 51 2.38 200 1.19 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.28 64 0.03 7 0.44 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.78 48 5.58 151 3.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.64 150 5.29 171 3.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.48 74 4.81 143 3.37 13.32
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Next report: December 29, afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.