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December 29, 2023 report

December 29, 2023                                                                   

Summary:  A ridge of high pressure currently overhead will shift eastward later today in response to a trough of low pressure. This trough has good upper air support and satellite imagery illustrates a tap of subtropical moisture running from southwest to northeast ahead of the frontal system which will move through tonight. Satellite imagery also depicts a bubbly pattern to the clouds behind the front which indicates there may be enough convection for isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Rain will reach the west side of the valley late this afternoon or early this evening then will spread inland tonight. Rainfall amounts should be fairly substantial with this storm, ranging from a quarter to a third of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County to as much as an inch from Fresno County north. The trough will shift into the Great Basin Saturday night. allowing a much weaker trough to move into southern California Sunday night and early Monday. currently it appears any precipitation will be confined to southern California. High pressure will build in Tuesday and Tuesday night followed by yet another system Wednesday. On paper, this system does not look as strong as the current storm, but strong enough to spread precipitation down the valley once again. Longer range models show yet a third system affecting central California about a week from Wednesday.

Forecast;  Partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness by late this afternoon. Rain at times tonight and Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night. mostly to partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night with a slight chance of showers. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. periods of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. partly to mostly cloudy Thursday through Friday with areas of morning fog.

Madera 67/43/59/39/59Reedley 69/46/60/40/58Dinuba 68/47/59/42/54
Porterville 70/44/59/45/59Lindsay 69/44/60/41/58Delano 70/45/60/46/60
Bakersfield 71/46/60/46/68Taft 67/50/59/48/55Arvin 71/46/58/43/58
Lamont 70/47/59/43/58Pixley 68/45/59/43/59Tulare 68/42/59/40/59
Woodlake 69/46/59/42/57Hanford 70/46/60/41/57Orosi 68/44/59/40/58

Seven Day Forecast

Monday Partly cloudy 36/59Tuesday Increasing clouds 34/58Wednesday Periods of rain 39/59Thursday Periods of showers 39/58Friday Am fog/pm sun 34/57

Two Week Outlook:  January 4 through January 10: This model shows a possible north to northwest flow developing for a possible trend of below average temperatures. There is a better than even chance that precipitation will occur during this period.

December:  This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.   

December, January, February:  If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.  

Wind Discussion:  Winds this morning will be light and generally out of the southeast. Winds tonight will be generally out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times. Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph, diminishing by late Saturday afternoon. Winds Saturday night through Thursday will be variable to    10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

Rain Discussion: The chance of rain will begin to increase by early this evening with periods of rain overnight continuing through much of the day Saturday. Models also indicate there’s quite a bit of bounce in the air mass behind the front so isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. Rainfall from this system could potentially be fairly significant, ranging from .75 to 1 inch over much of Merced, Madera and Fresno Counties to roughly .33 to .50 over Tulare County and .25 to .33 over the valley portion of Kern County. Rain will be over by Saturday evening with dry weather through Tuesday night of next week. the next significant event will be Wednesday followed by another Thursday. Models also point to another system possibly affecting the valley the second half of next weekend.

Frost Discussion: all locations will be above freezing tonight through Monday morning. low to mid 30s will be possible Tuesday morning and possibly Wednesday morning but only in the very coldest locations. Low to mid 30s will again be possible Thursday through Saturday mornings, but again only in the coldest locations. We’re still watching the pattern for the eighth through the tenth of January. For the first time this season, models are indicating a north to northwest flow into the US with modified arctic air. We are not, as of this time, forecasting a freeze during this period. What I am saying is that for the first time this winter season, it looks like the pattern may be more favorable for freezing temperatures. Again, that’s for the eighth through the tenth and beyond.

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.  Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. 

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .20, Parlier, .20, Arvin .20, Delano .20.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Arvin 55, Delano 53 

Average Temperatures: 54/37,  Record Temperatures: 66/24

Heating  Degree Days Season.  674 -280  varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  .73, Monthly  .52

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .79, Monthly:  .47

Average Temperature this Month 51.8 +5.8 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 441  Arvin, 359 Belridge, 394 Shafter, 401 Stratford, 420 Delano 416.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 7:11.  Sunset, 4:51  hours of daylight, 9:40

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather: 

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  60 /  44 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  63 /  47 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  63 /  50 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  63 /  47 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  62 /  44 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  63 /  47 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  63 /  47 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  65 /  44 /  0.00 /

Rainfall:                                      24hr        seas.            %            L.Y          %                S.Ave.            365

STOCKTON                      0.05    2.31    55    5.80   139     4.18    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    2.61    74    6.23   177     3.52    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    2.33    71    4.81   146     3.30    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    1.45    49    2.57    88     2.93    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    0.73    25    4.45   151     2.95    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.01    45    3.29   148     2.23     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.79    46    1.93   112     1.72     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.61    51    2.38   200     1.19     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.28    64    0.03     7     0.44     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    1.78    48    5.58   151     3.70    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    4.64   150    5.29   171     3.09    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.48    74    4.81   143     3.37    13.32

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Next report: December 29, afternoon                                                                                                                             

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.