December 30, 2023
Summary: Precipitation is widespread throughout the valley at this hour. Already, better than a half inch of rain has been recorded at Merced and Lemoore with Madera reporting more than a third of an inch. Other locations range from just a few hundredths to around a tenth. Most of the rain from this event will fall this morning, however there is a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorms can be difficult to get going this time of year due to the low sun angle with only nine hours and forty one minutes of daylight. The result is weak daytime heating. The trough of low pressure will slide into Nevada this afternoon, however it’s being followed by a second, much weaker trough. This system will turn southeastward with most of the energy going into southern California and northern Baja Sunday night and Monday. the pattern will remain active, however, as a temporary ridge fills over California, governing our weather from Monday through Tuesday. The next Pacific storm will increase the chance of precipitation Tuesday night with rain becoming likely Wednesday. This system is not particularly impressive but should bless us with light precipitation.
Forecast; Periods of rain this morning. a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight with areas of fog after sunrise. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight. A slight chance of light showers Sunday and Sunday night, mostly in Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday with areas of low clouds and fog. A chance of showers late Tuesday night, becoming likely Tuesday. A chance of showers Wednesday evening. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
| Madera 58/38/58/37/59 | Reedley 59/41/57/39/59 | Dinuba 57/42/57/37/47 |
| Porterville 60/41/59/38/58 | Lindsay 59/42/58/38/57 | Delano 59/42/58/38/58 |
| Bakersfield 60/45/59/43/57 | Taft 55./50/54/45/53 | Arvin 60/44/58/40/59 |
| Lamont 61/43/58/41//59 | Pixley 57/40/58/38/58 | Tulare 57/39/58/37/59 |
| Woodlake 58/41/59/37/58 | Hanford 59/42/57/42/59 | Orosi 58/40/57/37;/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Am fog/partly cloudy 35/59 | Wednesday Showers likely 39/60 | Thursday Am fog/partly cloudy 38/58 | Friday Am fog/pm sun 33/55 | Saturday Am fog/pm sun 35/58 |
Two Week Outlook: January 6 through January 12: This model shows a possible north to northwest flow developing for a possible trend of below average temperatures. There is a better than even chance that precipitation will occur during this period.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February: If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: precipitation will be widespread for much of the morning then will decrease this afternoon. If enough daytime heating occurs, thunderstorms will be possible, mainly north of Kern County. Rainfall totals from this storm should range from a quarter to a third of an inch in Kern County to as one inch in Madera and Merced Counties. Dry weather will return tonight. I’m going to keep a small chance of light showers in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday as a weak weather system will affect mainly southern California. Dry weather will prevail New Year’s Day through Tuesday. The chance for showers will again increase Tuesday night, becoming likely Wednesday. This system isn’t impressive; however it does appear to have enough dynamics for rain all the way down the valley. Dry weather will return Thursday through Saturday
Frost Discussion: all locations will be above freezing through Monday morning. coldest locations Tuesday morning could potentially dip into the lower 30s, depending on cloud cover. Wednesday and Thursday will be above freezing, depending on rain and cloud cover. Low to mid 30s will be likely Friday and Saturday. The pattern we’ve been watching for January 8th and beyond doesn’t appear to be quite as ominous this morning. the north/northeast flow which had been showing up on earlier model runs now shows up as a northwest flow. Since this is the first change in modeling in tis period, we’ll closely watch for future changes.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .32, Parlier, .31, Arvin .34, Delano .33.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Arvin 55, Delano 53
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 67/24
Heating Degree Days Season. 690 -304 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .73, Monthly .52
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .79, Monthly: .47
Average Temperature this Month 52.2 +6.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 447 Arvin, 371 Belridge, 406 Shafter, 414 Stratford, 424 Delano 429. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:11. Sunset, 4:53 hours of daylight, 9:41
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 68 / 52 / 0.49 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 69 / 52 / 0.32 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 69 / 52 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 71 / 46 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 72 / 49 / 0.46 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 75 / 54 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 69 / 46 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 71 / 44 / T /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON T 2.43 56 6.37 147 4.34 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 2.91 79 6.69 182 3.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.39 69 5.13 149 3.44 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.45 47 2.58 84 3.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.73 24 4.69 152 3.08 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.01 43 3.38 144 2.34 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.79 44 1.98 109 1.81 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 49 2.38 190 1.25 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.28 61 0.03 7 0.46 2.20
SALINAS T 1.84 48 5.63 147 3.84 12.58
PASO ROBLES T 4.64 143 5.35 165 3.25 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.48 70 4.82 136 3.54 13.32
w
Next report: December 30, afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.