January 1, 2024
Summary: fog is fairly widespread from Fresno to Merced County. Areas of fog have developed over Kings, Tulare, and Kern counties over the past few hours. The fog will lift into a low overcast by late morning or early afternoon, clearing in most areas by mid to late afternoon. There is also areas of higher clouds above the fog which are associated with a low pressure system off the northern Baja coastline. They will move inland later today. The next storm event will arrive Tuesday night or Wednesday. This system’s origins are in the northwest pacific, meaning it’s somewhat colder than the previous storm. Quantitative precipitation estimates for this event generally range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch with locally higher amounts. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into California late Thursday night and Friday. A cold low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Saturday and Saturday night. This will be the coldest storm we’ve experienced this season. It should drop snow levels down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet. Following this event, a large high will build along the west coast and ridge northeastward into western Canada while a low center develops over either southern California or northern Baja. In any case, this will set up a north/northeast flow from western Canada and will transport modified arctic air into California for a possible freeze as early as next Monday.
Forecast: Widespread areas of dense fog this morning, lifting into a low overcast this afternoon. Clearing in most areas by mid to late afternoon. Areas of fog will redevelop tonight. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. periods of rain late Tuesday night through midafternoon Wednesday. A chance of showers Thursday evening, otherwise mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday with areas of morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. rain likely Saturday through Saturday night with snow in the foothills. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday through Monday with areas of morning fog.
| Madera 58/36/59/40/55 | Reedley 59/36/60/39/56 | Dinuba 58/37/59/40/56 |
| Porterville 60/38/59/40/56 | Lindsay 58/37/59/40/59 | Delano 60/40/61/41/55 |
| Bakersfield 59/41/61/44/56 | Taft 58/45/59/46/55 | Arvin 60/41/59/43/56 |
| Lamont 60/41/59/43/57 | Pixley 59/38/60/41/55 | Tulare 58/37/58/40/56 |
| Woodlake 59/37/59/41/55 | Hanford 60/39/59/42/56 | Orosi 58/37/59/39/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Am fog/partly cloudy 37/55 | Friday Am fog/increasing clouds 32/54 | Saturday Rain likely 37/56 | Sunday Am fog/partly cloudy 36/55 | Monday Am fog/mostly clear 29/50 |
Two Week Outlook: January 8 through January 14: This model shows a possible north to northwest flow developing for a possible trend of below average temperatures. There is a better than even chance that precipitation will occur during this period.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph.
Rain Discussion: Periods of light rain will begin to overspread the valley Tuesday night, continuing through mid afternoon Wednesday. We’ll maintain a chance of showers into Wednesday evening. Dry weather will prevail Thursday through Friday. The coldest storm of the season will arrive Saturday with periods of rain and snow down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet in the nearby mountains. Dry weather will return Sunday and continue Monday through Wednesday.
Frost Discussion: Following this event, a large high will build along the west coast and ridge northeastward into western Canada while a low center develops over either southern California or northern Baja. In any case, this will set up a north/northeast flow from western Canada and will transport modified arctic air into California for a possible freeze as early as next Monday. All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night through Wednesday night. Assuming skies are relatively clear, lows in the low to mid 30s will be likely Friday morning with a chance of upper 20s in the coldest locations. Lows Monday through Wednesday of next week could drop into the mid to upper 20s. Obviously, we’re still a week out on this and we’ll do plenty of adjustments between now and then. For now, though, all the parameters point towards three days of cold weather.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .32, Parlier, .30, Arvin .33, Delano .32.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Arvin 55, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 69/21
Heating Degree Days Season. 717 -316 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .89, Monthly .68
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .96, Monthly: .64
Average Temperature this Month 52.1 +6.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 454 Arvin, 372 Belridge, 408 Shafter, 420 Stratford, 427 Delano 438. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 4:54 hours of daylight, 9:42
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 58 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 57 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 3.44 76 9.74 216 4.50 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.75 98 8.13 212 3.83 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.00 84 6.21 174 3.57 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.89 59 2.89 91 3.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.89 28 5.25 163 3.22 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.28 52 3.65 150 2.44 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.96 51 2.35 124 1.89 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 46 3.02 229 1.32 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.29 60 0.03 6 0.48 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 2.62 66 6.27 158 3.98 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.91 173 6.25 183 3.41 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.30 89 5.95 160 3.71 13.32
Next report: January 2, morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.