January 3, 2024
Summary: Only isolated showers through the mountains at this hour. The latest trough of low pressure has now moved into Nevada and Arizona. Weak upper level high pressure will quickly build in from the west tonight and Thursday. Assuming winds die off and skies become mostly clear by late tonight, areas of dense fog will form by Thursday morning. The next trough of low pressure is very weak and dry. It will quickly move through the region Friday with just partly cloudy skies. The next precipitation producer will arrive Saturday night and Sunday morning. This system will have polar air associated with it and will lower snow levels down to roughly 2,000 feet. Typically, very cold storms do not carry much water. Still, a tenth or two is possible during the second half of the weekend. After this system goes through, a very cold air mass will settle on the valley floor. The ramifications of this are discussed below in the frost section. The pattern will remain active next week as another cold low will arrive next Wednesday into Thursday and again next Friday night into Saturday. The GFS model is beginning to show the possibility of a strong westerly flow across the Pacific about a week from Sunday. If this comes to fruition could mean significantly wetter storms and higher snow levels beginning around the 15.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy tonight and Thursday with areas of fog forming before sunrise. Variable cloudiness at tine Thursday night through Friday night with patchy morning fog. Showers becoming likely Saturday night and Sunday morning with snow in the foothills. Partly to mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday with areas of fog and low clouds. A chance of showers Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/51/42/54 | Reedley 37/54/32/55 | Dinuba 37/53/32/54 |
| Porterville 38/52/33/53 | Lindsay 37/53/31/53 | Delano 38/52/33/53 |
| Bakersfield 41/52/36/53 | Taft 44/50/39/51 | Arvin 39/52/33/53 |
| Lamont 40/51/34/52 | Pixley 36/51/33/53 | Tulare 36/53/31/53 |
| Woodlake 37/52/31/53 | Hanford 37/53/34/55 | Orosi 37/54/31/54 |
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph this afternoon and evening. Winds will continue out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts, diminishing Thursday evening. Winds Friday and Saturday will be generally less than 5 mph with locally calmer conditions.
Rain: Dry weather can be expected through Friday night and much of Saturday. Light showers will spread over the valley again Saturday night into Sunday. This is a very cold system and as such won’t be carrying much water. Still, a tenth or two is possible at any given location from this event. Dry and cold weather will prevail Sunday afternoon through at least Tuesday night. The next system will arrive from the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with yet another next Friday into Saturday. The GFS model is pointing to a pattern change beginning around Monday the 15th. If this model comes to pass, storms from lower latitudes will arrive with much higher snow levels and possibly heavy precipitation, especially over the mountains.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight but at or near the 32 degree mark in the coldest low lying locations. On Friday morning, conditions will rely on the amount of cloud cover we have from a weak upper air disturbance moving through. There will be a risk of low to mid 30s on a more widespread basis, depending on cloud cover. There will be a chance of coldest locations dipping into the 20s. Upper 20s to the mid 30s are also possible Saturday morning. All locations Sunday will be above freezing due to cloud cover and showers. Models this afternoon look slightly colder for Monday and Tuesday mornings. One model places Porterville at 27 Monday morning while another says 28. In unprotected low spots, 24 to 26 degrees will be possible with most areas averaging between 28 and 30 degrees. Roughly the same potential exists for Tuesday morning. by Wednesday, readings should be above freezing again due to a storm moving in from the Gulf of Alaska with potentially more cold nights as we head into next weekend. So far, I don’t see much potential for a hard freeze. Nevertheless, this pattern deserves close scrutiny.