January 3, 2024
Summary: A Pacific cold front moved down the valley in the early morning hours. Rainfall totals so far are pretty decent in some areas. The following are storm totals up until 4:30 this morning. Mettler .12, Belridge .04, Bakersfield .13, Delano .04, Porterville .39, Exeter .50, Visalia .37, Hanford .34, Lemoore .09, Dinuba .44, Reedley .43, Westlands .17, Fresno .35, Madera .40, and Merced .29.
Now that the front has moved through, the main trough of low pressure will move through during the day with periods of showers which will be most numerous this morning. upper-level high pressure will begin pushing in from the eastern Pacific Ocean later tonight and will dominate our pattern through Friday night. The next Pacific storm will move out of the northeastern Gulf of Alaska and into California Saturday night and Sunday morning. It’s unclear how much of the energy of this system will slide southeastward into Nevada. Some models are portraying this system as more of an inside slider which would reduce the chance of precipitation over the valley floor. still, it’s close enough to keep that chance of showers in the forecast. This system is quite cold and will lower snow levels down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet. The air mass behind this system is also quite cold and may result in a freeze Monday and Tuesday mornings. This is discussed below in the frost section. Medium range models for next week show another cold storm arriving Wednesday and Thursday with yet another possible event Friday night and Saturday.
Forecast: Periods of showers today, most numerous in the morning. mostly cloudy tonight and Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday night with areas of night and morning fog. Light showers spreading over the valley Saturday night into Sunday morning. partly cloudy Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday.
| Madera 56/37/52/31/54 | Reedley 57/38/52/33/53 | Dinuba 55/37/52/32/53 |
| Porterville 55/39/52/31/54 | Lindsay 55/37/52/31/53 | Delano 56/40/52/33/53 |
| Bakersfield 54/40/51/36/53 | Taft 53/47/49/39/51 | Arvin 56/41/52/34/54 |
| Lamont 56/41/53/35/54 | Pixley 56/37/52/33/54 | Tulare 54/36/52/30/53 |
| Woodlake 55/39/52/31/54 | Hanford 55/39/52/34/53 | Orosi 54/38/52/31/53 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Pm showers 32/54 | Sunday Am showers 36/55 | Monday Am fog/mostly clear 30/50 | Tuesday Am fog/mostly clear 28/52 | Wednesday Increasing clouds 32/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 10 through January 16: This model continues the trend of below average temperatures for central California. The storm track is not shown to be as active as previously depicted. Even so, near average precipitation can be expected with below average temperatures.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Rain Discussion: The bulk of the precipitation has already moved through. as the trough of low pressure moves through, showers will be likely, mainly this morning. dry weather will return by tonight and continue through Saturday. The next rain event is a tough one to forecast. There are models indicating this will be more of an inside slider with most of the energy sliding just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. Still, it’s a close call. I’m going to bite the bullet and forecast light showers Saturday night through Sunday morning. dry weather will return by Sunday evening and continue through at least Tuesday night. models are still showing an active pattern for later next week as two more storms could potentially affect central California, one about Wednesday into Thursday and the next one Saturday into Sunday.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight but near to slightly above in the coldest locations. Friday has the potential for low to mid 30, depending on cloud cover with even a greater risk Saturday morning. There will be a small chance of those low, cold spots dipping into the lower 20s. Sunday should be above freezing due to fog and cloud cover. The air mass moving in for Sunday through Tuesday is quite cold. Models show the potential for mid to upper 20s with lows possibly down to 26 in the coldest locations. Fortunately, the upper air pattern is such that winds aloft will be out of the northwest. As you recall, earlier projections had called for a north to northeast flow, meaning we could have had our hands full. So far so good, though. It’s possible fog and low clouds may moderate this situation, as well.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .24, Parlier, .23, Arvin .32, Delano .26.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 53, Arvin 53, Delano 51
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 72/23
Heating Degree Days Season. 749 -318 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 1.06, Monthly .17
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .96, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 48.5 +2.5 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 465 Arvin, 394 Belridge, 408 Shafter, 439 Stratford, 428 Delano 454. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 4:56 hours of daylight, 9:43
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 44 / 0.29 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / 44 / 0.40 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 55 / 48 / 0.35 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 50 / 48 / 0.34 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 52 / 45 / 0.09 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 53 / 42 / 0.13 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 53 / 43 / 0.37 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 53 / 42 / 0.38 //
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 3.44 74 10.31 221 4.66 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.75 94 8.56 215 3.99 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.00 81 6.62 178 3.71 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.89 57 3.04 92 3.32 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.89 26 5.75 171 3.37 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.28 50 4.00 156 2.56 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.96 49 2.48 126 1.97 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 44 3.12 223 1.40 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.29 58 0.20 40 0.50 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 2.62 63 6.27 152 4.13 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.91 165 6.32 177 3.58 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.30 85 6.06 156 3.89 13.32
Next report: January 3 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.